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Week 9 · 2026

What the model says about week 9

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Ranked teams this week

  • #4 Ohio Stateat#19 USC

    Ohio State by 6.6 (69%)

  • #16 Mississippi Stat#7 Texas

    Texas by 8.4 (74%)

  • Floridavs#1 Georgia

    Georgia by 10.2 (78%)

  • #2 Notre DamevsNavy

    Notre Dame by 21.6 (95%)

  • #3 MiamiatNorth Carolina

    Miami by 14.4 (87%)

  • Minnesotaat#5 Indiana

    Indiana by 20.2 (94%)

  • Arizona Stat#8 BYU

    BYU by 14.1 (86%)

  • Auburnat#9 Ole Miss

    Ole Miss by 7.8 (72%)

The full slate

56 games, in kickoff order.

  • DelawareatWestern KY

    Western KY by 3.2 (60%)

  • Sam HoustonatMissouri St

    Missouri St by 3.1 (60%)

  • Kennesaw StatMTSU

    Kennesaw St by 4.9 (65%)

  • Jax StateatNew Mexico St

    Jax State by 2.9 (59%)

  • FAUatNorth Texas

    North Texas by 11.0 (80%)

  • TroyatJames Madison

    James Madison by 15.0 (88%)

  • TulaneatCharlotte

    Tulane by 15.4 (88%)

  • BayloratUCF

    UCF by 1.1 (53%)

  • Kent StateatSacramento St

    Kent State by 1.8 (55%)

  • #3 MiamiatNorth Carolina

    Miami by 14.4 (87%)

  • #4 Ohio Stateat#19 USC

    Ohio State by 6.6 (69%)

  • Minnesotaat#5 Indiana

    Indiana by 20.2 (94%)

  • #16 Mississippi Stat#7 Texas

    Texas by 8.4 (74%)

  • Arizona Stat#8 BYU

    BYU by 14.1 (86%)

  • Auburnat#9 Ole Miss

    Ole Miss by 7.8 (72%)

  • Arizonaat#10 Texas Tech

    Texas Tech by 8.6 (75%)

  • #11 UtahatCincinnati

    Utah by 10.6 (79%)

  • Nevadaat#12 UCLA

    UCLA by 19.4 (93%)

  • #13 MissouriatArkansas

    Missouri by 9.6 (77%)

  • Wisconsinat#17 Iowa

    Iowa by 5.0 (65%)

  • #18 Oklahoma StatIowa State

    Iowa State by 5.7 (67%)

  • Virginiaat#21 Wake Forest

    Wake Forest by 6.6 (69%)

  • #24 SMUatSyracuse

    SMU by 3.8 (62%)

  • #25 NorthwesternatOregon

    Oregon by 8.7 (75%)

  • South CarolinaatOklahoma

    Oklahoma by 5.3 (66%)

  • KansasatTCU

    TCU by 5.1 (65%)

  • Kansas StatColorado

    Kansas St by 4.9 (65%)

  • CaliforniaatNC State

    NC State by 4.0 (62%)

  • Boston CollegeatDuke

    Duke by 14.7 (87%)

  • ClemsonatFlorida St

    Florida St by 3.1 (59%)

  • Georgia TechatPitt

    Pitt by 11.4 (81%)

  • StanfordatLouisville

    Louisville by 16.0 (89%)

  • IllinoisatMaryland

    Illinois by 2.1 (56%)

  • WashingtonatNebraska

    Nebraska by 8.8 (75%)

  • PurdueatPenn State

    Penn State by 8.4 (74%)

  • MichiganatRutgers

    Michigan by 7.5 (72%)

  • Oregon StatFresno St

    Fresno St by 2.6 (58%)

  • ArmyatMemphis

    Memphis by 7.2 (71%)

  • TempleatEast Carolina

    East Carolina by 8.2 (74%)

  • UABatSouth Florida

    South Florida by 15.4 (88%)

  • New MexicoatSan José St

    New Mexico by 12.6 (83%)

  • App StateatGA Southern

    GA Southern by 6.4 (69%)

  • CoastalatGeorgia St

    Georgia St by 7.3 (71%)

  • Southern MissatUL Monroe

    Southern Miss by 4.6 (64%)

  • MarshallatOld Dominion

    Old Dominion by 9.0 (76%)

  • Louisiana TechatSouth Alabama

    Louisiana Tech by 0.5 (52%)

  • #2 Notre DamevsNavy

    Notre Dame by 21.6 (95%)

  • Bowling GreenatW Michigan

    W Michigan by 14.0 (86%)

  • UConnatAir Force

    Air Force by 1.3 (54%)

  • Floridavs#1 Georgia

    Georgia by 10.2 (78%)

  • Colorado StatUtah State

    Utah State by 3.1 (59%)

  • UTEPatN Dakota St

    N Dakota St by 22.5 (96%)

  • FIUatLiberty

    Liberty by 7.0 (70%)

  • Washington StatSan Diego St

    San Diego St by 2.8 (59%)

  • Texas Stat#23 Boise St

    Boise St by 9.5 (77%)

  • N IllinoisatUNLV

    UNLV by 17.8 (91%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.