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Week 11 · 2026

What the model says about week 11

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

#14 TennesseeatTexas A&M

TBD

Texas A&M by 1.7

Model

55%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

  • #13 Missouriat#1 Georgia

    Georgia by 7.9 (73%)

  • #25 Northwesternat#4 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 14.5 (87%)

  • #19 USCat#5 Indiana

    Indiana by 10.7 (79%)

  • #7 Texasat#22 LSU

    LSU by 0.4 (51%)

  • #10 Texas Techat#18 Oklahoma St

    Texas Tech by 10.8 (80%)

  • #21 Wake Forestat#24 SMU

    Wake Forest by 1.6 (55%)

  • Boston Collegeat#2 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 30.6 (99%)

  • Dukeat#3 Miami

    Miami by 15.2 (88%)

The full slate

67 games, in kickoff order.

  • W MichiganatAkron

    W Michigan by 10.5 (79%)

  • Kent StateatBowling Green

    Bowling Green by 3.1 (59%)

  • OhioatMiami OH

    Miami OH by 0.2 (50%)

  • BuffaloatBall State

    Buffalo by 1.4 (54%)

  • Sacramento StatC Michigan

    C Michigan by 11.0 (80%)

  • UMassatToledo

    Toledo by 14.3 (87%)

  • MemphisatSouth Florida

    South Florida by 1.9 (56%)

  • LouisianaatUL Monroe

    Louisiana by 9.7 (77%)

  • Florida StatPitt

    Pitt by 6.5 (69%)

  • Illinoisat#12 UCLA

    UCLA by 7.4 (72%)

  • #20 HoustonatColorado

    Houston by 11.3 (81%)

  • #13 Missouriat#1 Georgia

    Georgia by 7.9 (73%)

  • Dukeat#3 Miami

    Miami by 15.2 (88%)

  • #25 Northwesternat#4 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 14.5 (87%)

  • #19 USCat#5 Indiana

    Indiana by 10.7 (79%)

  • #6 AlabamaatVanderbilt

    Alabama by 15.1 (88%)

  • #7 Texasat#22 LSU

    LSU by 0.4 (51%)

  • Baylorat#8 BYU

    BYU by 8.8 (75%)

  • #9 Ole MissatOklahoma

    Oklahoma by 1.1 (53%)

  • #10 Texas Techat#18 Oklahoma St

    Texas Tech by 10.8 (80%)

  • #11 UtahatArizona

    Utah by 4.0 (62%)

  • #14 TennesseeatTexas A&M

    Texas A&M by 1.7 (55%)

  • Floridaat#15 Kentucky

    Kentucky by 2.1 (56%)

  • Auburnat#16 Mississippi St

    Mississippi St by 5.0 (65%)

  • Purdueat#17 Iowa

    Iowa by 9.2 (76%)

  • #21 Wake Forestat#24 SMU

    Wake Forest by 1.6 (55%)

  • Arizona StatUCF

    UCF by 6.3 (69%)

  • CincinnatiatIowa State

    Iowa State by 5.1 (65%)

  • KansasatWest Virginia

    Kansas by 1.0 (53%)

  • Kansas StatTCU

    TCU by 3.8 (62%)

  • South CarolinaatArkansas

    South Carolina by 4.9 (65%)

  • CaliforniaatVirginia

    Virginia by 7.9 (73%)

  • Georgia TechatClemson

    Clemson by 6.8 (70%)

  • LouisvilleatNorth Carolina

    Louisville by 3.4 (60%)

  • StanfordatVirginia Tech

    Virginia Tech by 10.9 (80%)

  • SyracuseatNC State

    NC State by 4.9 (65%)

  • WisconsinatMaryland

    Wisconsin by 4.3 (63%)

  • WashingtonatMichigan St

    Michigan St by 0.5 (52%)

  • MichiganatOregon

    Oregon by 9.3 (76%)

  • MinnesotaatPenn State

    Penn State by 9.8 (77%)

  • NebraskaatRutgers

    Nebraska by 10.0 (78%)

  • East CarolinaatCharlotte

    East Carolina by 16.7 (90%)

  • FAUatTulsa

    Tulsa by 1.7 (55%)

  • North TexasatUTSA

    North Texas by 1.2 (54%)

  • TulaneatRice

    Tulane by 5.6 (67%)

  • UABatTemple

    Temple by 7.2 (71%)

  • NevadaatN Illinois

    Nevada by 4.1 (62%)

  • WyomingatUTEP

    Wyoming by 1.4 (54%)

  • App StateatMarshall

    App State by 0.4 (51%)

  • Arkansas StatCoastal

    Coastal by 1.1 (53%)

  • GA SouthernatGeorgia St

    Georgia St by 3.2 (60%)

  • Southern MissatLouisiana Tech

    Louisiana Tech by 9.6 (77%)

  • TroyatSouth Alabama

    South Alabama by 1.9 (56%)

  • James MadisonatUConn

    James Madison by 6.5 (69%)

  • Kennesaw StatSam Houston

    Kennesaw St by 4.5 (64%)

  • New Mexico StatMissouri St

    Missouri St by 0.6 (52%)

  • FIUatDelaware

    FIU by 1.7 (55%)

  • Boston Collegeat#2 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 30.6 (99%)

  • Jax StateatWestern KY

    Jax State by 1.7 (55%)

  • MTSUatLiberty

    Liberty by 14.5 (87%)

  • Fresno StatTexas St

    Fresno St by 0.1 (50%)

  • Oregon Stat#23 Boise St

    Boise St by 6.9 (70%)

  • San José StatAir Force

    Air Force by 9.9 (78%)

  • UNLVatNew Mexico

    New Mexico by 8.0 (73%)

  • Utah StateatSan Diego St

    San Diego St by 5.2 (65%)

  • Colorado StatWashington St

    Washington St by 5.5 (66%)

  • N Dakota StatHawai'i

    N Dakota St by 11.8 (82%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.