Week 11 · 2026
What the model says about week 11
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
#14 Tennesseeat
Texas A&M
TBD
Texas A&M by 1.7
Model
55%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#13 Missouriat
#1 GeorgiaGeorgia by 7.9 (73%)
#25 Northwesternat
#4 Ohio StateOhio State by 14.5 (87%)
#19 USCat
#5 IndianaIndiana by 10.7 (79%)
#7 Texasat
#22 LSULSU by 0.4 (51%)
#10 Texas Techat
#18 Oklahoma StTexas Tech by 10.8 (80%)
#21 Wake Forestat
#24 SMUWake Forest by 1.6 (55%)
Boston Collegeat
#2 Notre DameNotre Dame by 30.6 (99%)
Dukeat
#3 MiamiMiami by 15.2 (88%)
The full slate
67 games, in kickoff order.
W Michiganat
AkronW Michigan by 10.5 (79%)
Kent Stateat
Bowling GreenBowling Green by 3.1 (59%)
Ohioat
Miami OHMiami OH by 0.2 (50%)
Buffaloat
Ball StateBuffalo by 1.4 (54%)
Sacramento Stat
C MichiganC Michigan by 11.0 (80%)
UMassat
ToledoToledo by 14.3 (87%)
Memphisat
South FloridaSouth Florida by 1.9 (56%)
Louisianaat
UL MonroeLouisiana by 9.7 (77%)
Florida Stat
PittPitt by 6.5 (69%)
Illinoisat
#12 UCLAUCLA by 7.4 (72%)
#20 Houstonat
ColoradoHouston by 11.3 (81%)
#13 Missouriat
#1 GeorgiaGeorgia by 7.9 (73%)
Dukeat
#3 MiamiMiami by 15.2 (88%)
#25 Northwesternat
#4 Ohio StateOhio State by 14.5 (87%)
#19 USCat
#5 IndianaIndiana by 10.7 (79%)
#6 Alabamaat
VanderbiltAlabama by 15.1 (88%)
#7 Texasat
#22 LSULSU by 0.4 (51%)
Baylorat
#8 BYUBYU by 8.8 (75%)
#9 Ole Missat
OklahomaOklahoma by 1.1 (53%)
#10 Texas Techat
#18 Oklahoma StTexas Tech by 10.8 (80%)
#11 Utahat
ArizonaUtah by 4.0 (62%)
#14 Tennesseeat
Texas A&MTexas A&M by 1.7 (55%)
Floridaat
#15 KentuckyKentucky by 2.1 (56%)
Auburnat
#16 Mississippi StMississippi St by 5.0 (65%)
Purdueat
#17 IowaIowa by 9.2 (76%)
#21 Wake Forestat
#24 SMUWake Forest by 1.6 (55%)
Arizona Stat
UCFUCF by 6.3 (69%)
Cincinnatiat
Iowa StateIowa State by 5.1 (65%)
Kansasat
West VirginiaKansas by 1.0 (53%)
Kansas Stat
TCUTCU by 3.8 (62%)
South Carolinaat
ArkansasSouth Carolina by 4.9 (65%)
Californiaat
VirginiaVirginia by 7.9 (73%)
Georgia Techat
ClemsonClemson by 6.8 (70%)
Louisvilleat
North CarolinaLouisville by 3.4 (60%)
Stanfordat
Virginia TechVirginia Tech by 10.9 (80%)
Syracuseat
NC StateNC State by 4.9 (65%)
Wisconsinat
MarylandWisconsin by 4.3 (63%)
Washingtonat
Michigan StMichigan St by 0.5 (52%)
Michiganat
OregonOregon by 9.3 (76%)
Minnesotaat
Penn StatePenn State by 9.8 (77%)
Nebraskaat
RutgersNebraska by 10.0 (78%)
East Carolinaat
CharlotteEast Carolina by 16.7 (90%)
FAUat
TulsaTulsa by 1.7 (55%)
North Texasat
UTSANorth Texas by 1.2 (54%)
Tulaneat
RiceTulane by 5.6 (67%)
UABat
TempleTemple by 7.2 (71%)
Nevadaat
N IllinoisNevada by 4.1 (62%)
Wyomingat
UTEPWyoming by 1.4 (54%)
App Stateat
MarshallApp State by 0.4 (51%)
Arkansas Stat
CoastalCoastal by 1.1 (53%)
GA Southernat
Georgia StGeorgia St by 3.2 (60%)
Southern Missat
Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech by 9.6 (77%)
Troyat
South AlabamaSouth Alabama by 1.9 (56%)
James Madisonat
UConnJames Madison by 6.5 (69%)
Kennesaw Stat
Sam HoustonKennesaw St by 4.5 (64%)
New Mexico Stat
Missouri StMissouri St by 0.6 (52%)
FIUat
DelawareFIU by 1.7 (55%)
Boston Collegeat
#2 Notre DameNotre Dame by 30.6 (99%)
Jax Stateat
Western KYJax State by 1.7 (55%)
MTSUat
LibertyLiberty by 14.5 (87%)
Fresno Stat
Texas StFresno St by 0.1 (50%)
Oregon Stat
#23 Boise StBoise St by 6.9 (70%)
San José Stat
Air ForceAir Force by 9.9 (78%)
UNLVat
New MexicoNew Mexico by 8.0 (73%)
Utah Stateat
San Diego StSan Diego St by 5.2 (65%)
Colorado Stat
Washington StWashington St by 5.5 (66%)
N Dakota Stat
Hawai'iN Dakota St by 11.8 (82%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.