Week 3 · 2026

What the model says about week 3

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

Kennesaw Stat#15 Tennessee

Final · SECN+

Tennessee by 16.0

Model

89%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

#7 LSUat#8 Ole Miss
Ole Miss by 1.5 (55%)
#22 Houstonat#13 Texas Tech
Texas Tech by 6.6 (69%)
#16 SMUat#23 Louisville
Louisville by 5.2 (66%)
UTSAat#1 Texas
Texas by 14.5 (87%)
#2 GeorgiaatArkansas
Georgia by 15.1 (88%)
Michigan Stat#3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame by 23.2 (96%)
Western KYat#4 Indiana
Indiana by 28.0 (98%)
#5 MiamiatWake Forest
Miami by 7.1 (71%)

The full slate

75 games, in kickoff order.

SyracuseatPitt
Pitt by 13.0 (84%)
#5 MiamiatWake Forest
Miami by 7.1 (71%)
#22 Houstonat#13 Texas Tech
Texas Tech by 6.6 (69%)
Portland Stat#21 Oregon
Oregon by 43.2 (99%)
CoastalatDelaware
Delaware by 1.7 (55%)
#2 GeorgiaatArkansas
Georgia by 15.1 (88%)
Kent Stateat#6 Ohio State
Ohio State by 33.2 (99%)
Buffaloat#14 Penn State
Penn State by 20.4 (94%)
TulaneatKansas St
Kansas St by 6.2 (68%)
Bowling GreenatIowa State
Iowa State by 17.5 (91%)
Arizona StvsKansas
Kansas by 2.3 (57%)
MerceratGeorgia Tech
Georgia Tech by 29.6 (99%)
North CarolinaatClemson
Clemson by 5.3 (66%)
AkronatMinnesota
Minnesota by 15.6 (89%)
North TexasatTexas St
North Texas by 3.5 (61%)
E MichiganatWisconsin
Wisconsin by 17.0 (90%)
NC StateatVanderbilt
Vanderbilt by 3.6 (61%)
WyomingatC Michigan
C Michigan by 5.0 (65%)
MaineatBoston College
Boston College by 23.1 (96%)
S IllinoisatIllinois
Illinois by 33.8 (99%)
TempleatToledo
Toledo by 7.6 (72%)
#12 USCatRutgers
USC by 11.1 (80%)
#16 SMUat#23 Louisville
Louisville by 5.2 (66%)
Utah Stateat#17 Utah
Utah by 23.2 (96%)
UTEPat#19 Michigan
Michigan by 22.7 (96%)
Miami OHatCincinnati
Cincinnati by 8.4 (74%)
WagneratCalifornia
California by 28.9 (99%)
DuquesneatWashington St
Washington St by 25.9 (98%)
StonehillatUMass
UMass by 18.6 (92%)
Kentuckyat#9 Texas A&M
Texas A&M by 5.2 (66%)
Western KYat#4 Indiana
Indiana by 28.0 (98%)
Northern Iowaat#18 Iowa
Iowa by 38.6 (99%)
StanfordatDuke
Duke by 14.3 (86%)
Ball StateatLiberty
Liberty by 17.1 (91%)
Louisiana TechatBaylor
Baylor by 9.2 (76%)
SE LouisianaatUL Monroe
UL Monroe by 14.3 (86%)
Florida Stat#10 Alabama
Alabama by 17.1 (91%)
Mississippi StatSouth Carolina
South Carolina by 1.1 (53%)
East CarolinaatOld Dominion
East Carolina by 2.1 (56%)
FIUatFAU
FAU by 3.3 (60%)
MarshallatMissouri St
Missouri St by 2.1 (57%)
Troyat#20 Missouri
Missouri by 17.6 (91%)
FloridaatAuburn
Auburn by 1.5 (55%)
Georgia StatUCF
UCF by 8.7 (75%)
Murray StatOklahoma St
Oklahoma St by 30.6 (99%)
UConnatSouthern Miss
UConn by 5.6 (67%)
UT MartinatMemphis
Memphis by 34.1 (99%)
W MichiganatRice
W Michigan by 6.2 (68%)
Delaware StatSouth Florida
South Florida by 33.5 (99%)
NevadaatMTSU
Nevada by 0.7 (52%)
OhioatSouth Alabama
South Alabama by 0.3 (51%)
GA SouthernatJax State
Jax State by 2.5 (58%)
NichollsatSam Houston
Sam Houston by 18.9 (93%)
North DakotaatNebraska
Nebraska by 38.9 (99%)
E WashingtonatWashington
Washington by 32.5 (99%)
Michigan Stat#3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame by 23.2 (96%)
#7 LSUat#8 Ole Miss
Ole Miss by 1.5 (55%)
New Mexicoat#24 Oklahoma
Oklahoma by 5.6 (67%)
West Virginiavs#25 Virginia
Virginia by 5.6 (67%)
ColoradoatNorthwestern
Northwestern by 13.4 (85%)
Virginia TechatMaryland
Virginia Tech by 0.2 (50%)
Kennesaw Stat#15 Tennessee
Tennessee by 16.0 (89%)
UTSAat#1 Texas
Texas by 14.5 (87%)
Arkansas StatTCU
TCU by 13.2 (84%)
East Texas A&MatTulsa
Tulsa by 26.1 (98%)
UABatLouisiana
Louisiana by 8.3 (74%)
#11 BYUatColorado St
BYU by 16.0 (89%)
CharlotteatApp State
App State by 13.5 (85%)
South DakotaatBoise St
Boise St by 36.3 (99%)
James MadisonatSan Diego St
James Madison by 9.7 (77%)
N IllinoisatArizona
Arizona by 25.1 (97%)
N Dakota StatSacramento St
N Dakota St by 19.6 (93%)
PurdueatUCLA
UCLA by 9.3 (76%)
MontanaatOregon St
Oregon St by 31.9 (99%)
Fresno StatSan José St
Fresno St by 8.6 (74%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.