Week 6 · 2026

What the model says about week 6

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

#15 TennesseeatArkansas

Final · SEC Network

Tennessee by 8.0

Model

73%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

#2 Georgiaat#6 Alabama
Alabama by 5.1 (65%)
#21 UCLAat#13 Oregon
Oregon by 7.0 (70%)
#1 TexasvsOklahoma
Texas by 4.6 (64%)
Stanfordat#3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame by 30.3 (99%)
Marylandat#5 Ohio State
Ohio State by 22.3 (96%)
#7 IndianaatNebraska
Indiana by 6.8 (70%)
Iowa Stateat#8 BYU
BYU by 10.2 (78%)
#9 Ole MissatVanderbilt
Ole Miss by 6.6 (69%)

The full slate

58 games, in kickoff order.

Southern MissatTroy
Troy by 7.1 (71%)
Jax StateatKennesaw St
Kennesaw St by 1.4 (54%)
New Mexico StatFIU
FIU by 7.3 (71%)
Sam HoustonatLiberty
Liberty by 14.1 (86%)
Missouri StatWestern KY
Western KY by 5.5 (66%)
South FloridaatUTSA
UTSA by 0.7 (52%)
South AlabamaatArkansas St
Arkansas St by 1.1 (53%)
Florida StatLouisville
Louisville by 5.0 (65%)
#20 IowaatWashington
Iowa by 3.5 (61%)
Washington StatUtah State
Utah State by 0.2 (51%)
WyomingatSan José St
San José St by 3.4 (60%)
Iowa Stateat#8 BYU
BYU by 10.2 (78%)
#7 IndianaatNebraska
Indiana by 6.8 (70%)
Texas A&Mat#14 Missouri
Missouri by 5.0 (65%)
UCFat#18 Oklahoma St
UCF by 0.5 (52%)
North Carolinaat#25 Pitt
Pitt by 9.9 (78%)
ArizonaatWest Virginia
Arizona by 6.6 (69%)
Wake ForestatNC State
Wake Forest by 5.5 (66%)
TulaneatArmy
Army by 2.2 (57%)
Sacramento StatBowling Green
Bowling Green by 7.4 (71%)
Ball StateatNorthwestern
Northwestern by 23.6 (96%)
South Carolinaat#16 Florida
Florida by 2.4 (57%)
RiceatEast Carolina
East Carolina by 11.9 (82%)
Old DominionatApp State
Old Dominion by 1.1 (53%)
Miami OHatUMass
Miami OH by 4.1 (63%)
#1 TexasvsOklahoma
Texas by 4.6 (64%)
Stanfordat#3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame by 30.3 (99%)
#9 Ole MissatVanderbilt
Ole Miss by 6.6 (69%)
#21 UCLAat#13 Oregon
Oregon by 7.0 (70%)
#22 HoustonatKansas St
Houston by 3.9 (62%)
DukeatGeorgia Tech
Duke by 3.2 (60%)
Virginia TechatCalifornia
Virginia Tech by 0.5 (51%)
IllinoisatMichigan St
Illinois by 0.7 (52%)
CharlotteatNorth Texas
North Texas by 26.1 (98%)
TulsaatNavy
Navy by 6.0 (68%)
E MichiganatAkron
E Michigan by 1.7 (55%)
BuffaloatToledo
Toledo by 13.1 (84%)
C MichiganatOhio
Ohio by 7.7 (72%)
Kent StateatW Michigan
W Michigan by 14.6 (87%)
UConnatTemple
UConn by 1.7 (55%)
Marylandat#5 Ohio State
Ohio State by 22.3 (96%)
#15 TennesseeatArkansas
Tennessee by 8.0 (73%)
San Diego StatOregon St
Oregon St by 8.1 (73%)
#10 LSUatKentucky
LSU by 3.2 (60%)
UABatMemphis
Memphis by 16.0 (89%)
NevadaatUTEP
Nevada by 3.2 (60%)
N Dakota StatUNLV
N Dakota St by 3.1 (59%)
CoastalatMarshall
Coastal by 0.2 (51%)
#2 Georgiaat#6 Alabama
Alabama by 5.1 (65%)
#19 USCatPenn State
Penn State by 0.3 (51%)
SyracuseatVirginia
Virginia by 8.8 (75%)
Air ForceatN Illinois
Air Force by 10.7 (79%)
LouisianaatLouisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech by 4.5 (64%)
Kansasat#12 Utah
Utah by 14.6 (87%)
MinnesotaatPurdue
Purdue by 3.9 (62%)
James MadisonatGA Southern
James Madison by 9.2 (76%)
#23 Boise StatFresno St
Boise St by 1.9 (56%)
Hawai'iatArizona St
Arizona St by 10.6 (79%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.