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Week 10 · 2026

What the model says about week 10

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

#15 Kentuckyat#14 Tennessee

TBD

Tennessee by 6.0

Model

68%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

  • #1 Georgiaat#9 Ole Miss

    Georgia by 3.5 (60%)

  • #3 Miamiat#2 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 5.8 (67%)

  • #6 Alabamaat#22 LSU

    Alabama by 5.1 (65%)

  • #7 Texasat#13 Missouri

    Texas by 0.1 (50%)

  • #8 BYUat#11 Utah

    Utah by 5.3 (66%)

  • #15 Kentuckyat#14 Tennessee

    Tennessee by 6.0 (68%)

  • #17 Iowaat#25 Northwestern

    Northwestern by 0.9 (53%)

  • Oregonat#4 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 8.3 (74%)

The full slate

63 games, in kickoff order.

  • OhioatAkron

    Ohio by 7.8 (73%)

  • BuffaloatMiami OH

    Miami OH by 7.9 (73%)

  • Ball StateatUMass

    UMass by 5.2 (66%)

  • C MichiganvsE Michigan

    C Michigan by 1.0 (53%)

  • ToledoatSacramento St

    Toledo by 14.0 (86%)

  • UTSAatFAU

    UTSA by 2.3 (57%)

  • James MadisonatSouthern Miss

    James Madison by 14.6 (87%)

  • Virginia Techat#24 SMU

    SMU by 4.9 (65%)

  • South FloridaatEast Carolina

    South Florida by 0.0 (50%)

  • NebraskaatIllinois

    Nebraska by 2.6 (58%)

  • New MexicoatNevada

    New Mexico by 11.8 (82%)

  • TCUatArizona

    Arizona by 5.5 (66%)

  • #1 Georgiaat#9 Ole Miss

    Georgia by 3.5 (60%)

  • Oregonat#4 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 8.3 (74%)

  • #6 Alabamaat#22 LSU

    Alabama by 5.1 (65%)

  • #7 Texasat#13 Missouri

    Texas by 0.1 (50%)

  • #8 BYUat#11 Utah

    Utah by 5.3 (66%)

  • West Virginiaat#10 Texas Tech

    Texas Tech by 17.7 (91%)

  • #12 UCLAatMinnesota

    UCLA by 5.8 (67%)

  • #15 Kentuckyat#14 Tennessee

    Tennessee by 6.0 (68%)

  • Vanderbiltat#16 Mississippi St

    Mississippi St by 8.8 (75%)

  • #17 Iowaat#25 Northwestern

    Northwestern by 0.9 (53%)

  • #18 Oklahoma StatKansas St

    Kansas St by 5.3 (66%)

  • Cincinnatiat#20 Houston

    Houston by 11.1 (80%)

  • Merrimackat#21 Wake Forest

    Wake Forest by 38.4 (99%)

  • ArkansasatAuburn

    Auburn by 8.8 (75%)

  • OklahomaatFlorida

    Oklahoma by 0.3 (51%)

  • Texas A&MatSouth Carolina

    South Carolina by 0.2 (51%)

  • UCFatKansas

    Kansas by 1.0 (53%)

  • ColoradoatArizona St

    Arizona St by 6.3 (69%)

  • Iowa StateatBaylor

    Baylor by 3.8 (62%)

  • ClemsonatSyracuse

    Clemson by 3.4 (60%)

  • DukeatNC State

    Duke by 2.4 (57%)

  • LouisvilleatGeorgia Tech

    Louisville by 4.9 (65%)

  • Florida StatBoston College

    Florida St by 8.9 (75%)

  • Michigan StatMichigan

    Michigan by 8.3 (74%)

  • MarylandatPurdue

    Purdue by 5.1 (65%)

  • Penn StateatWashington

    Penn State by 2.7 (58%)

  • RutgersatWisconsin

    Wisconsin by 12.2 (83%)

  • CharlotteatUAB

    UAB by 11.3 (81%)

  • RiceatNorth Texas

    North Texas by 16.3 (89%)

  • TulsaatTulane

    Tulane by 6.2 (68%)

  • Hawai'iatUTEP

    Hawai'i by 3.1 (60%)

  • N IllinoisatSan José St

    San José St by 8.2 (74%)

  • Georgia StatApp State

    Georgia St by 2.2 (57%)

  • Old DominionatCoastal

    Old Dominion by 1.2 (54%)

  • MarshallatGA Southern

    GA Southern by 9.4 (76%)

  • South AlabamaatLouisiana

    Louisiana by 3.5 (61%)

  • Louisiana TechatTroy

    Troy by 0.1 (50%)

  • North CarolinaatUConn

    UConn by 0.9 (53%)

  • UL MonroeatArkansas St

    Arkansas St by 12.3 (83%)

  • DelawareatKennesaw St

    Kennesaw St by 6.6 (69%)

  • TempleatNavy

    Navy by 6.8 (70%)

  • Western KYatMTSU

    Western KY by 1.5 (55%)

  • Missouri StatFIU

    FIU by 9.0 (76%)

  • LibertyatNew Mexico St

    Liberty by 6.6 (69%)

  • #23 Boise StatColorado St

    Boise St by 10.8 (80%)

  • Sam HoustonatJax State

    Jax State by 10.4 (79%)

  • #3 Miamiat#2 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 5.8 (67%)

  • Air ForceatArmy

    Army by 3.6 (61%)

  • Fresno StatUtah State

    Fresno St by 5.9 (67%)

  • Texas StatOregon St

    Oregon St by 5.0 (65%)

  • WyomingatUNLV

    UNLV by 13.0 (84%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.