Week 10 · 2026
What the model says about week 10
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
#15 Kentuckyat
#14 Tennessee
TBD
Tennessee by 6.0
Model
68%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#1 Georgiaat
#9 Ole MissGeorgia by 3.5 (60%)
#3 Miamiat
#2 Notre DameNotre Dame by 5.8 (67%)
#6 Alabamaat
#22 LSUAlabama by 5.1 (65%)
#7 Texasat
#13 MissouriTexas by 0.1 (50%)
#8 BYUat
#11 UtahUtah by 5.3 (66%)
#15 Kentuckyat
#14 TennesseeTennessee by 6.0 (68%)
#17 Iowaat
#25 NorthwesternNorthwestern by 0.9 (53%)
Oregonat
#4 Ohio StateOhio State by 8.3 (74%)
The full slate
63 games, in kickoff order.
Ohioat
AkronOhio by 7.8 (73%)
Buffaloat
Miami OHMiami OH by 7.9 (73%)
Ball Stateat
UMassUMass by 5.2 (66%)
C Michiganvs
E MichiganC Michigan by 1.0 (53%)
Toledoat
Sacramento StToledo by 14.0 (86%)
UTSAat
FAUUTSA by 2.3 (57%)
James Madisonat
Southern MissJames Madison by 14.6 (87%)
Virginia Techat
#24 SMUSMU by 4.9 (65%)
South Floridaat
East CarolinaSouth Florida by 0.0 (50%)
Nebraskaat
IllinoisNebraska by 2.6 (58%)
New Mexicoat
NevadaNew Mexico by 11.8 (82%)
TCUat
ArizonaArizona by 5.5 (66%)
#1 Georgiaat
#9 Ole MissGeorgia by 3.5 (60%)
Oregonat
#4 Ohio StateOhio State by 8.3 (74%)
#6 Alabamaat
#22 LSUAlabama by 5.1 (65%)
#7 Texasat
#13 MissouriTexas by 0.1 (50%)
#8 BYUat
#11 UtahUtah by 5.3 (66%)
West Virginiaat
#10 Texas TechTexas Tech by 17.7 (91%)
#12 UCLAat
MinnesotaUCLA by 5.8 (67%)
#15 Kentuckyat
#14 TennesseeTennessee by 6.0 (68%)
Vanderbiltat
#16 Mississippi StMississippi St by 8.8 (75%)
#17 Iowaat
#25 NorthwesternNorthwestern by 0.9 (53%)
#18 Oklahoma Stat
Kansas StKansas St by 5.3 (66%)
Cincinnatiat
#20 HoustonHouston by 11.1 (80%)
Merrimackat
#21 Wake ForestWake Forest by 38.4 (99%)
Arkansasat
AuburnAuburn by 8.8 (75%)
Oklahomaat
FloridaOklahoma by 0.3 (51%)
Texas A&Mat
South CarolinaSouth Carolina by 0.2 (51%)
UCFat
KansasKansas by 1.0 (53%)
Coloradoat
Arizona StArizona St by 6.3 (69%)
Iowa Stateat
BaylorBaylor by 3.8 (62%)
Clemsonat
SyracuseClemson by 3.4 (60%)
Dukeat
NC StateDuke by 2.4 (57%)
Louisvilleat
Georgia TechLouisville by 4.9 (65%)
Florida Stat
Boston CollegeFlorida St by 8.9 (75%)
Michigan Stat
MichiganMichigan by 8.3 (74%)
Marylandat
PurduePurdue by 5.1 (65%)
Penn Stateat
WashingtonPenn State by 2.7 (58%)
Rutgersat
WisconsinWisconsin by 12.2 (83%)
Charlotteat
UABUAB by 11.3 (81%)
Riceat
North TexasNorth Texas by 16.3 (89%)
Tulsaat
TulaneTulane by 6.2 (68%)
Hawai'iat
UTEPHawai'i by 3.1 (60%)
N Illinoisat
San José StSan José St by 8.2 (74%)
Georgia Stat
App StateGeorgia St by 2.2 (57%)
Old Dominionat
CoastalOld Dominion by 1.2 (54%)
Marshallat
GA SouthernGA Southern by 9.4 (76%)
South Alabamaat
LouisianaLouisiana by 3.5 (61%)
Louisiana Techat
TroyTroy by 0.1 (50%)
North Carolinaat
UConnUConn by 0.9 (53%)
UL Monroeat
Arkansas StArkansas St by 12.3 (83%)
Delawareat
Kennesaw StKennesaw St by 6.6 (69%)
Templeat
NavyNavy by 6.8 (70%)
Western KYat
MTSUWestern KY by 1.5 (55%)
Missouri Stat
FIUFIU by 9.0 (76%)
Libertyat
New Mexico StLiberty by 6.6 (69%)
#23 Boise Stat
Colorado StBoise St by 10.8 (80%)
Sam Houstonat
Jax StateJax State by 10.4 (79%)
#3 Miamiat
#2 Notre DameNotre Dame by 5.8 (67%)
Air Forceat
ArmyArmy by 3.6 (61%)
Fresno Stat
Utah StateFresno St by 5.9 (67%)
Texas Stat
Oregon StOregon St by 5.0 (65%)
Wyomingat
UNLVUNLV by 13.0 (84%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.