Week 1 · 2026
What the model says about week 1
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
Furmanat
#20 Tennessee
Final · SECN+
Tennessee by 39.4
Model
99%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#24 Louisvillevs
#9 Ole MissOle Miss by 3.6 (61%)
Ball Stateat
#1 Ohio StateOhio State by 35.6 (99%)
Boise Stat
#2 OregonOregon by 9.3 (76%)
Tennessee Stat
#3 GeorgiaGeorgia by 46.5 (99%)
Wisconsinvs
#4 Notre DameNotre Dame by 15.2 (88%)
Texas Stat
#5 TexasTexas by 16.8 (90%)
North Texasat
#6 IndianaIndiana by 15.2 (88%)
#7 Miamiat
StanfordMiami by 22.0 (95%)
The full slate
99 games, in kickoff order.
North Carolinavs
TCUTCU by 3.7 (61%)
San José Stat
#14 USCUSC by 21.5 (95%)
NC Stateat
VirginiaVirginia by 6.4 (69%)
Jax Stateat
N Dakota StN Dakota St by 11.8 (82%)
Sacramento Stat
E MichiganE Michigan by 10.0 (78%)
Hawai'iat
StanfordStanford by 4.2 (63%)
New Mexico Stat
Florida StFlorida St by 15.6 (88%)
Memphisat
UNLVMemphis by 1.1 (53%)
UMassat
RutgersRutgers by 10.2 (78%)
Bethuneat
UCFUCF by 33.7 (99%)
Akronat
Wake ForestWake Forest by 23.6 (97%)
Merrimackat
DelawareDelaware by 21.9 (95%)
West Georgiaat
Kennesaw StKennesaw St by 25.9 (98%)
UAlbanyat
BuffaloBuffalo by 19.9 (94%)
AR-Pine Bluffat
#25 MissouriMissouri by 41.1 (99%)
Coloradoat
Georgia TechGeorgia Tech by 6.1 (68%)
E Illinoisat
MinnesotaMinnesota by 30.4 (99%)
Idahoat
#21 UtahUtah by 44.3 (99%)
UABat
IllinoisIllinois by 15.6 (89%)
San José Stat
E MichiganE Michigan by 3.1 (59%)
Indiana Stat
PurduePurdue by 31.8 (99%)
NC A&Tat
Georgia StGeorgia St by 27.5 (98%)
UTEPat
#10 OklahomaOklahoma by 25.5 (98%)
Long Islandat
KansasKansas by 32.1 (99%)
Toledoat
Michigan StMichigan St by 2.6 (58%)
#7 Miamiat
StanfordMiami by 22.0 (95%)
Fresno Stat
#14 USCUSC by 10.4 (79%)
North Texasat
#6 IndianaIndiana by 15.2 (88%)
East Carolinaat
#13 AlabamaAlabama by 20.6 (94%)
Oregon Stat
#23 HoustonHouston by 10.4 (79%)
Coastalat
West VirginiaWest Virginia by 8.5 (74%)
New Hampshireat
SyracuseSyracuse by 28.0 (98%)
Ohioat
NebraskaNebraska by 13.7 (85%)
Lafayetteat
UConnUConn by 29.5 (99%)
Bryantat
ArmyArmy by 29.5 (99%)
Tarleton Stat
Bowling GreenBowling Green by 18.9 (93%)
Libertyat
James MadisonJames Madison by 10.5 (79%)
Ball Stateat
#1 Ohio StateOhio State by 35.6 (99%)
Miami OHat
PittPitt by 15.7 (89%)
Kent Stateat
South CarolinaSouth Carolina by 20.6 (94%)
Youngstown Stat
KentuckyKentucky by 35.9 (99%)
SE Missouriat
Iowa StateIowa State by 33.8 (99%)
Duquesneat
Air ForceAir Force by 28.4 (99%)
Rhode Islandat
TempleTemple by 25.4 (97%)
Tennessee Stat
#3 GeorgiaGeorgia by 46.5 (99%)
Boise Stat
#2 OregonOregon by 9.3 (76%)
Texas Stat
#5 TexasTexas by 16.8 (90%)
Marshallat
#18 Penn StatePenn State by 20.3 (94%)
Furmanat
#20 TennesseeTennessee by 39.4 (99%)
Baylorvs
AuburnAuburn by 0.2 (50%)
Boston Collegeat
CincinnatiCincinnati by 10.6 (79%)
Tulaneat
DukeDuke by 8.0 (73%)
The Citadelat
CharlotteCharlotte by 11.8 (82%)
Towsonat
NavyNavy by 29.6 (99%)
UT Rio Grandeat
UTSAUTSA by 31.7 (99%)
Fordhamat
N Dakota StN Dakota St by 36.1 (99%)
Maineat
App StateApp State by 22.8 (96%)
Oklahoma Stat
TulsaOklahoma St by 2.1 (56%)
N Illinoisat
#22 IowaIowa by 25.9 (98%)
North Alabamaat
ArkansasArkansas by 28.9 (99%)
Alcorn Stat
Southern MissSouthern Miss by 21.4 (95%)
Wyomingat
Colorado StColorado St by 5.5 (66%)
Norfolk Stat
Old DominionOld Dominion by 26.4 (98%)
Missouri Stat
#8 Texas A&MTexas A&M by 21.6 (95%)
Abilene Chrstnat
#12 Texas TechTexas Tech by 43.9 (99%)
Austin Peayat
VanderbiltVanderbilt by 31.5 (99%)
Nichollsat
Kansas StKansas St by 33.4 (99%)
Idaho Stat
Utah StateUtah State by 23.6 (97%)
Arkansas Stat
MemphisMemphis by 12.6 (83%)
Hou Christianat
RiceRice by 21.6 (95%)
FIUat
South FloridaSouth Florida by 10.0 (78%)
E Kentuckyat
Jax StateJax State by 26.8 (98%)
Charleston Soat
GA SouthernGA Southern by 26.8 (98%)
SE Louisianaat
South AlabamaSouth Alabama by 25.4 (97%)
Sam Houstonat
TroyTroy by 9.6 (77%)
W Michiganat
#16 MichiganMichigan by 8.5 (74%)
UL Monroeat
Mississippi StMississippi St by 26.0 (98%)
VMIat
Virginia TechVirginia Tech by 31.9 (99%)
N'Western Stat
Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech by 28.5 (99%)
FAUat
FloridaFlorida by 11.9 (82%)
Murray Stat
MTSUMTSU by 18.6 (92%)
Utah Techat
#14 BYUBYU by 41.5 (99%)
Hamptonat
MarylandMaryland by 29.2 (99%)
S Dakota Stat
NorthwesternNorthwestern by 37.0 (99%)
Lamarat
LouisianaLouisiana by 26.4 (98%)
Mercyhurstat
New Mexico StNew Mexico St by 21.4 (95%)
N Arizonaat
ArizonaArizona by 37.8 (99%)
Portland Stat
San Diego StSan Diego St by 26.3 (98%)
Clemsonat
#11 LSULSU by 10.1 (78%)
Morgan Stat
Arizona StArizona St by 29.8 (99%)
UNLVat
Hawai'iUNLV by 6.3 (68%)
C Michiganat
New MexicoNew Mexico by 16.1 (89%)
Miss Valley Stat
Sacramento StSacramento St by 14.0 (86%)
UCLAat
CaliforniaUCLA by 7.3 (71%)
Western KYat
NevadaNevada by 1.7 (55%)
Washington Stat
#17 WashingtonWashington by 9.1 (76%)
Wisconsinvs
#4 Notre DameNotre Dame by 15.2 (88%)
#24 Louisvillevs
#9 Ole MissOle Miss by 3.6 (61%)
#19 SMUat
Florida StFlorida St by 2.7 (58%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.