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Week 1 · 2026

What the model says about week 1

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

Furmanat#20 Tennessee

Final · SECN+

Tennessee by 39.4

Model

99%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

  • #24 Louisvillevs#9 Ole Miss

    Ole Miss by 3.6 (61%)

  • Ball Stateat#1 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 35.6 (99%)

  • Boise Stat#2 Oregon

    Oregon by 9.3 (76%)

  • Tennessee Stat#3 Georgia

    Georgia by 46.5 (99%)

  • Wisconsinvs#4 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 15.2 (88%)

  • Texas Stat#5 Texas

    Texas by 16.8 (90%)

  • North Texasat#6 Indiana

    Indiana by 15.2 (88%)

  • #7 MiamiatStanford

    Miami by 22.0 (95%)

The full slate

99 games, in kickoff order.

  • North CarolinavsTCU

    TCU by 3.7 (61%)

  • San José Stat#14 USC

    USC by 21.5 (95%)

  • NC StateatVirginia

    Virginia by 6.4 (69%)

  • Jax StateatN Dakota St

    N Dakota St by 11.8 (82%)

  • Sacramento StatE Michigan

    E Michigan by 10.0 (78%)

  • Hawai'iatStanford

    Stanford by 4.2 (63%)

  • New Mexico StatFlorida St

    Florida St by 15.6 (88%)

  • MemphisatUNLV

    Memphis by 1.1 (53%)

  • UMassatRutgers

    Rutgers by 10.2 (78%)

  • BethuneatUCF

    UCF by 33.7 (99%)

  • AkronatWake Forest

    Wake Forest by 23.6 (97%)

  • MerrimackatDelaware

    Delaware by 21.9 (95%)

  • West GeorgiaatKennesaw St

    Kennesaw St by 25.9 (98%)

  • UAlbanyatBuffalo

    Buffalo by 19.9 (94%)

  • AR-Pine Bluffat#25 Missouri

    Missouri by 41.1 (99%)

  • ColoradoatGeorgia Tech

    Georgia Tech by 6.1 (68%)

  • E IllinoisatMinnesota

    Minnesota by 30.4 (99%)

  • Idahoat#21 Utah

    Utah by 44.3 (99%)

  • UABatIllinois

    Illinois by 15.6 (89%)

  • San José StatE Michigan

    E Michigan by 3.1 (59%)

  • Indiana StatPurdue

    Purdue by 31.8 (99%)

  • NC A&TatGeorgia St

    Georgia St by 27.5 (98%)

  • UTEPat#10 Oklahoma

    Oklahoma by 25.5 (98%)

  • Long IslandatKansas

    Kansas by 32.1 (99%)

  • ToledoatMichigan St

    Michigan St by 2.6 (58%)

  • #7 MiamiatStanford

    Miami by 22.0 (95%)

  • Fresno Stat#14 USC

    USC by 10.4 (79%)

  • North Texasat#6 Indiana

    Indiana by 15.2 (88%)

  • East Carolinaat#13 Alabama

    Alabama by 20.6 (94%)

  • Oregon Stat#23 Houston

    Houston by 10.4 (79%)

  • CoastalatWest Virginia

    West Virginia by 8.5 (74%)

  • New HampshireatSyracuse

    Syracuse by 28.0 (98%)

  • OhioatNebraska

    Nebraska by 13.7 (85%)

  • LafayetteatUConn

    UConn by 29.5 (99%)

  • BryantatArmy

    Army by 29.5 (99%)

  • Tarleton StatBowling Green

    Bowling Green by 18.9 (93%)

  • LibertyatJames Madison

    James Madison by 10.5 (79%)

  • Ball Stateat#1 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 35.6 (99%)

  • Miami OHatPitt

    Pitt by 15.7 (89%)

  • Kent StateatSouth Carolina

    South Carolina by 20.6 (94%)

  • Youngstown StatKentucky

    Kentucky by 35.9 (99%)

  • SE MissouriatIowa State

    Iowa State by 33.8 (99%)

  • DuquesneatAir Force

    Air Force by 28.4 (99%)

  • Rhode IslandatTemple

    Temple by 25.4 (97%)

  • Tennessee Stat#3 Georgia

    Georgia by 46.5 (99%)

  • Boise Stat#2 Oregon

    Oregon by 9.3 (76%)

  • Texas Stat#5 Texas

    Texas by 16.8 (90%)

  • Marshallat#18 Penn State

    Penn State by 20.3 (94%)

  • Furmanat#20 Tennessee

    Tennessee by 39.4 (99%)

  • BaylorvsAuburn

    Auburn by 0.2 (50%)

  • Boston CollegeatCincinnati

    Cincinnati by 10.6 (79%)

  • TulaneatDuke

    Duke by 8.0 (73%)

  • The CitadelatCharlotte

    Charlotte by 11.8 (82%)

  • TowsonatNavy

    Navy by 29.6 (99%)

  • UT Rio GrandeatUTSA

    UTSA by 31.7 (99%)

  • FordhamatN Dakota St

    N Dakota St by 36.1 (99%)

  • MaineatApp State

    App State by 22.8 (96%)

  • Oklahoma StatTulsa

    Oklahoma St by 2.1 (56%)

  • N Illinoisat#22 Iowa

    Iowa by 25.9 (98%)

  • North AlabamaatArkansas

    Arkansas by 28.9 (99%)

  • Alcorn StatSouthern Miss

    Southern Miss by 21.4 (95%)

  • WyomingatColorado St

    Colorado St by 5.5 (66%)

  • Norfolk StatOld Dominion

    Old Dominion by 26.4 (98%)

  • Missouri Stat#8 Texas A&M

    Texas A&M by 21.6 (95%)

  • Abilene Chrstnat#12 Texas Tech

    Texas Tech by 43.9 (99%)

  • Austin PeayatVanderbilt

    Vanderbilt by 31.5 (99%)

  • NichollsatKansas St

    Kansas St by 33.4 (99%)

  • Idaho StatUtah State

    Utah State by 23.6 (97%)

  • Arkansas StatMemphis

    Memphis by 12.6 (83%)

  • Hou ChristianatRice

    Rice by 21.6 (95%)

  • FIUatSouth Florida

    South Florida by 10.0 (78%)

  • E KentuckyatJax State

    Jax State by 26.8 (98%)

  • Charleston SoatGA Southern

    GA Southern by 26.8 (98%)

  • SE LouisianaatSouth Alabama

    South Alabama by 25.4 (97%)

  • Sam HoustonatTroy

    Troy by 9.6 (77%)

  • W Michiganat#16 Michigan

    Michigan by 8.5 (74%)

  • UL MonroeatMississippi St

    Mississippi St by 26.0 (98%)

  • VMIatVirginia Tech

    Virginia Tech by 31.9 (99%)

  • N'Western StatLouisiana Tech

    Louisiana Tech by 28.5 (99%)

  • FAUatFlorida

    Florida by 11.9 (82%)

  • Murray StatMTSU

    MTSU by 18.6 (92%)

  • Utah Techat#14 BYU

    BYU by 41.5 (99%)

  • HamptonatMaryland

    Maryland by 29.2 (99%)

  • S Dakota StatNorthwestern

    Northwestern by 37.0 (99%)

  • LamaratLouisiana

    Louisiana by 26.4 (98%)

  • MercyhurstatNew Mexico St

    New Mexico St by 21.4 (95%)

  • N ArizonaatArizona

    Arizona by 37.8 (99%)

  • Portland StatSan Diego St

    San Diego St by 26.3 (98%)

  • Clemsonat#11 LSU

    LSU by 10.1 (78%)

  • Morgan StatArizona St

    Arizona St by 29.8 (99%)

  • UNLVatHawai'i

    UNLV by 6.3 (68%)

  • C MichiganatNew Mexico

    New Mexico by 16.1 (89%)

  • Miss Valley StatSacramento St

    Sacramento St by 14.0 (86%)

  • UCLAatCalifornia

    UCLA by 7.3 (71%)

  • Western KYatNevada

    Nevada by 1.7 (55%)

  • Washington Stat#17 Washington

    Washington by 9.1 (76%)

  • Wisconsinvs#4 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 15.2 (88%)

  • #24 Louisvillevs#9 Ole Miss

    Ole Miss by 3.6 (61%)

  • #19 SMUatFlorida St

    Florida St by 2.7 (58%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.