Week 4 · 2026
What the model says about week 4
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
#1 Texasat
#14 Tennessee
Final · ABC
Texas by 1.8
Model
55%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#1 Texasat
#14 TennesseeTexas by 1.8 (55%)
#4 Ole Missat
#21 FloridaOle Miss by 1.8 (55%)
#23 Texas A&Mat
#10 LSULSU by 5.4 (66%)
#20 Oregonat
#12 USCOregon by 0.8 (52%)
#17 Iowaat
#18 MichiganMichigan by 0.3 (51%)
#19 Missouriat
#24 Mississippi StMissouri by 0.8 (52%)
Oklahomaat
#2 GeorgiaGeorgia by 9.9 (78%)
#3 Notre Dameat
PurdueNotre Dame by 16.9 (90%)
The full slate
71 games, in kickoff order.
Libertyat
CoastalLiberty by 5.3 (66%)
Armyat
TempleArmy by 1.6 (55%)
Howardat
RutgersRutgers by 26.4 (98%)
Navyat
UABNavy by 6.5 (69%)
Northwesternat
#5 IndianaIndiana by 13.6 (85%)
Clemsonat
CaliforniaClemson by 2.5 (58%)
#1 Texasat
#14 TennesseeTexas by 1.8 (55%)
Illinoisat
#7 Ohio StateOhio State by 17.7 (91%)
Sam Houstonat
#11 Texas TechTexas Tech by 27.5 (98%)
Wake Forestat
#16 LouisvilleLouisville by 1.1 (53%)
Coloradoat
BaylorBaylor by 11.6 (81%)
Bucknellat
PittPitt by 38.5 (99%)
Virginia Techat
Boston CollegeVirginia Tech by 6.3 (69%)
San Diego Stat
ToledoToledo by 6.7 (70%)
Colorado Stat
UTSAUTSA by 11.2 (81%)
UNLVat
AkronUNLV by 10.7 (79%)
Ball Stateat
Kent StateKent State by 4.8 (65%)
South Alabamaat
KentuckyKentucky by 12.9 (84%)
Lindenwoodat
E MichiganE Michigan by 21.5 (95%)
UCLAat
MarylandUCLA by 7.0 (70%)
#3 Notre Dameat
PurdueNotre Dame by 16.9 (90%)
N Illinoisat
Georgia StGeorgia St by 14.8 (87%)
C Arkansasat
Florida StFlorida St by 34.5 (99%)
Hawai'iat
WyomingWyoming by 0.7 (52%)
Oklahomaat
#2 GeorgiaGeorgia by 9.9 (78%)
#4 Ole Missat
#21 FloridaOle Miss by 1.8 (55%)
#15 Utahat
Iowa StateUtah by 8.0 (73%)
#17 Iowaat
#18 MichiganMichigan by 0.3 (51%)
TCUat
UCFUCF by 1.4 (54%)
William & Maryat
DukeDuke by 35.3 (99%)
Boise Stat
W MichiganBoise St by 3.5 (61%)
UConnat
Miami OHUConn by 1.7 (55%)
New Mexicoat
New Mexico StNew Mexico by 12.1 (82%)
Robert Morrisat
BuffaloBuffalo by 19.9 (94%)
Stonehillat
OhioOhio by 27.6 (98%)
Gardner-Webbat
MarshallMarshall by 19.9 (94%)
#25 Houstonat
GA SouthernHouston by 10.5 (79%)
NC Centralat
East CarolinaEast Carolina by 31.0 (99%)
Vanderbiltat
AuburnAuburn by 6.3 (69%)
Wisconsinat
#13 Penn StatePenn State by 4.2 (63%)
Nebraskaat
Michigan StNebraska by 5.8 (67%)
South Floridaat
Bowling GreenSouth Florida by 12.2 (83%)
Delawareat
VirginiaVirginia by 14.9 (87%)
Incarnate Wordat
Texas StTexas St by 29.4 (99%)
Long Islandat
FIUFIU by 26.1 (98%)
James Madisonat
Old DominionJames Madison by 9.6 (77%)
C Michiganat
#6 MiamiMiami by 28.0 (98%)
Louisianaat
CharlotteLouisiana by 12.1 (82%)
Kansas Stat
CincinnatiCincinnati by 0.3 (51%)
Oklahoma Stat
West VirginiaWest Virginia by 0.5 (52%)
Southern Missat
TulaneTulane by 10.8 (80%)
Kennesaw Stat
Arkansas StArkansas St by 0.6 (52%)
Mercyhurstat
Western KYWestern KY by 22.6 (96%)
MTSUat
Jax StateJax State by 10.7 (80%)
South Carolinaat
#8 AlabamaAlabama by 15.2 (88%)
#23 Texas A&Mat
#10 LSULSU by 5.4 (66%)
#20 Oregonat
#12 USCOregon by 0.8 (52%)
Arizonaat
Washington StArizona by 9.3 (76%)
Troyat
Utah StateUtah State by 0.1 (50%)
Hou Christianat
North TexasNorth Texas by 35.4 (99%)
App Stateat
NC StateNC State by 10.1 (78%)
#19 Missouriat
#24 Mississippi StMissouri by 0.8 (52%)
Tulsaat
ArkansasArkansas by 5.4 (66%)
FAUat
UL MonroeFAU by 10.1 (78%)
Missouri Stat
#22 SMUSMU by 17.3 (91%)
Oregon Stat
UTEPOregon St by 13.3 (85%)
UMassat
Sacramento StUMass by 2.2 (57%)
Riceat
Fresno StFresno St by 12.8 (84%)
Georgia Techat
StanfordGeorgia Tech by 3.6 (61%)
Air Forceat
NevadaAir Force by 4.0 (62%)
Minnesotaat
WashingtonWashington by 4.6 (64%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.