Week 5 · 2026

What the model says about week 5

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

Auburnat#17 Tennessee

Final · ESPN

Tennessee by 6.6

Model

69%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

#5 Ohio Stateat#14 Iowa
Ohio State by 7.9 (73%)
#7 Alabamaat#16 Mississippi St
Alabama by 8.8 (75%)
#8 Floridaat#25 Missouri
Missouri by 7.3 (71%)
Vanderbiltat#2 Georgia
Georgia by 17.5 (91%)
#3 Notre DameatNorth Carolina
Notre Dame by 17.6 (91%)
#4 MiamiatClemson
Miami by 11.6 (81%)
#6 IndianaatRutgers
Indiana by 19.3 (93%)
#10 BYUatTCU
BYU by 4.2 (63%)

The full slate

59 games, in kickoff order.

Western KYatNew Mexico St
New Mexico St by 1.4 (54%)
North TexasatTulsa
North Texas by 6.8 (70%)
PittatVirginia Tech
Pitt by 4.1 (62%)
LibertyatDelaware
Liberty by 6.1 (68%)
Penn StateatNorthwestern
Northwestern by 1.8 (55%)
MemphisatCharlotte
Memphis by 19.8 (94%)
#3 Notre DameatNorth Carolina
Notre Dame by 17.6 (91%)
#7 Alabamaat#16 Mississippi St
Alabama by 8.8 (75%)
UCFat#20 Houston
Houston by 8.6 (75%)
Boston Collegeat#21 SMU
SMU by 13.7 (85%)
MTSUatKansas
Kansas by 16.1 (89%)
West VirginiaatIowa State
Iowa State by 7.6 (72%)
StanfordatWake Forest
Wake Forest by 17.4 (91%)
SyracuseatUConn
UConn by 4.0 (62%)
MichiganatMinnesota
Michigan by 3.4 (60%)
NavyatAir Force
Air Force by 1.2 (54%)
Michigan StatWisconsin
Wisconsin by 8.0 (73%)
Vanderbiltat#2 Georgia
Georgia by 17.5 (91%)
W MichiganatBuffalo
W Michigan by 8.0 (73%)
ToledoatBall State
Toledo by 12.1 (82%)
#5 Ohio Stateat#14 Iowa
Ohio State by 7.9 (73%)
Auburnat#17 Tennessee
Tennessee by 6.6 (69%)
CaliforniaatUNLV
UNLV by 4.1 (62%)
LouisvilleatNC State
Louisville by 4.1 (62%)
VirginiaatFlorida St
Florida St by 2.7 (58%)
SamfordatUAB
UAB by 20.6 (94%)
WyomingatN Dakota St
N Dakota St by 18.6 (92%)
AkronatC Michigan
C Michigan by 7.7 (72%)
E MichiganatUMass
E Michigan by 0.4 (51%)
OhioatKent State
Ohio by 6.9 (70%)
Bowling GreenatMiami OH
Miami OH by 8.9 (75%)
Old DominionatGeorgia St
Georgia St by 3.6 (61%)
MarshallatJames Madison
James Madison by 21.1 (95%)
#8 Floridaat#25 Missouri
Missouri by 7.3 (71%)
MarylandatNebraska
Nebraska by 12.1 (82%)
UTEPatNew Mexico
New Mexico by 22.4 (96%)
#24 KentuckyatSouth Carolina
South Carolina by 3.0 (59%)
PurdueatIllinois
Illinois by 4.5 (63%)
Oregon StatColorado St
Oregon St by 6.4 (69%)
Texas SouthernatFAU
FAU by 26.9 (98%)
#10 BYUatTCU
BYU by 4.2 (63%)
ArkansasatTexas A&M
Texas A&M by 12.2 (83%)
UTSAatRice
UTSA by 7.6 (72%)
GA SouthernatCoastal
GA Southern by 1.6 (55%)
UL MonroeatSouth Alabama
South Alabama by 13.7 (85%)
#4 MiamiatClemson
Miami by 11.6 (81%)
#12 Texas TechatColorado
Texas Tech by 15.4 (88%)
Washingtonat#18 USC
USC by 9.9 (78%)
Utah Stateat#22 Boise St
Boise St by 15.2 (88%)
TempleatSouth Florida
South Florida by 10.7 (79%)
ArmyatLouisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech by 1.5 (55%)
McNeeseat#11 LSU
LSU by 41.5 (99%)
#6 IndianaatRutgers
Indiana by 19.3 (93%)
Arkansas StatLouisiana
Louisiana by 4.9 (65%)
Fresno StatWashington St
Fresno St by 3.5 (61%)
BayloratArizona St
Baylor by 2.8 (58%)
Texas StatSan Diego St
Texas St by 0.6 (52%)
CincinnatiatArizona
Arizona by 9.1 (76%)
San José StatHawai'i
Hawai'i by 3.3 (60%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.