Week 12 · 2026
What the model says about week 12
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
#22 LSUat
#14 Tennessee
TBD
Tennessee by 0.4
Model
51%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#24 SMUat
#2 Notre DameNotre Dame by 19.4 (93%)
#15 Kentuckyat
#13 MissouriMissouri by 7.7 (72%)
#22 LSUat
#14 TennesseeTennessee by 0.4 (51%)
#1 Georgiaat
South CarolinaGeorgia by 7.7 (72%)
Virginia Techat
#3 MiamiMiami by 18.6 (92%)
#4 Ohio Stateat
NebraskaOhio State by 7.7 (72%)
#5 Indianaat
WashingtonIndiana by 13.1 (84%)
Chattanoogaat
#6 AlabamaAlabama by 49.1 (99%)
The full slate
70 games, in kickoff order.
Ball Stateat
OhioOhio by 14.2 (86%)
E Michiganat
W MichiganW Michigan by 11.3 (81%)
Miami OHat
Kent StateMiami OH by 4.5 (64%)
Akronat
UMassUMass by 3.8 (62%)
C Michiganat
BuffaloC Michigan by 0.1 (50%)
Riceat
TempleTemple by 6.2 (68%)
Iowa Stateat
UCFUCF by 2.4 (57%)
Clemsonat
DukeDuke by 3.9 (62%)
Bowling Greenat
ToledoToledo by 14.1 (86%)
Oregonat
Michigan StOregon by 10.1 (78%)
UTEPat
Air ForceAir Force by 14.7 (87%)
#1 Georgiaat
South CarolinaGeorgia by 7.7 (72%)
Virginia Techat
#3 MiamiMiami by 18.6 (92%)
#4 Ohio Stateat
NebraskaOhio State by 7.7 (72%)
#5 Indianaat
WashingtonIndiana by 13.1 (84%)
Arkansasat
#7 TexasTexas by 17.2 (91%)
#8 BYUat
KansasBYU by 6.8 (70%)
#10 Texas Techat
BaylorTexas Tech by 6.3 (69%)
#11 Utahat
TCUUtah by 7.0 (71%)
#12 UCLAat
MichiganMichigan by 0.2 (50%)
#15 Kentuckyat
#13 MissouriMissouri by 7.7 (72%)
#22 LSUat
#14 TennesseeTennessee by 0.4 (51%)
#17 Iowaat
IllinoisIowa by 2.3 (57%)
#18 Oklahoma Stat
Arizona StArizona St by 1.7 (55%)
Marylandat
#19 USCUSC by 13.2 (85%)
#20 Houstonat
West VirginiaHouston by 8.6 (75%)
#21 Wake Forestat
Georgia TechWake Forest by 6.3 (69%)
#25 Northwesternat
MinnesotaNorthwestern by 4.0 (62%)
Vanderbiltat
FloridaFlorida by 7.3 (71%)
Texas A&Mat
OklahomaOklahoma by 3.0 (59%)
Arizonaat
Kansas StArizona by 1.9 (56%)
Coloradoat
CincinnatiCincinnati by 7.7 (72%)
NC Stateat
Florida StFlorida St by 6.6 (69%)
North Carolinaat
VirginiaVirginia by 5.7 (67%)
Pittat
LouisvilleLouisville by 1.0 (53%)
Stanfordat
CaliforniaCalifornia by 8.0 (73%)
Syracuseat
Boston CollegeSyracuse by 2.4 (57%)
Rutgersat
Penn StatePenn State by 13.9 (86%)
Wisconsinat
PurdueWisconsin by 1.7 (55%)
Charlotteat
TulsaTulsa by 16.8 (90%)
South Floridaat
FAUSouth Florida by 4.1 (62%)
North Texasat
TulaneNorth Texas by 3.2 (60%)
UTSAat
UABUTSA by 8.6 (75%)
Hawai'iat
NevadaNevada by 2.5 (58%)
UL Monroeat
App StateApp State by 11.1 (80%)
Arkansas Stat
Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech by 6.9 (70%)
Coastalat
LouisianaLouisiana by 6.2 (68%)
GA Southernat
TroyTroy by 1.8 (55%)
Georgia Stat
MarshallGeorgia St by 5.1 (65%)
South Alabamaat
Southern MissSouth Alabama by 1.5 (55%)
Woffordat
#9 Ole MissOle Miss by 40.5 (99%)
East Carolinaat
ArmyArmy by 0.9 (53%)
Memphisat
NavyMemphis by 2.0 (56%)
Tennessee Techat
#16 Mississippi StMississippi St by 37.8 (99%)
Western KYat
LibertyLiberty by 10.5 (79%)
Chattanoogaat
#6 AlabamaAlabama by 49.1 (99%)
Missouri Stat
Jax StateJax State by 9.8 (77%)
MTSUat
Sam HoustonSam Houston by 2.8 (59%)
Delawareat
New Mexico StNew Mexico St by 2.1 (56%)
FIUat
Kennesaw StKennesaw St by 2.4 (57%)
Samfordat
AuburnAuburn by 35.3 (99%)
Old Dominionat
UConnUConn by 5.6 (67%)
N Illinoisat
N Dakota StN Dakota St by 23.4 (96%)
Washington Stat
Texas StTexas St by 5.9 (68%)
UNLVat
San José StUNLV by 7.1 (71%)
#24 SMUat
#2 Notre DameNotre Dame by 19.4 (93%)
Colorado Stat
Fresno StFresno St by 11.5 (81%)
New Mexicoat
WyomingNew Mexico by 13.6 (85%)
San Diego Stat
#23 Boise StBoise St by 12.5 (83%)
Utah Stateat
Oregon StOregon St by 10.8 (80%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.