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Week 12 · 2026

What the model says about week 12

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

#22 LSUat#14 Tennessee

TBD

Tennessee by 0.4

Model

51%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

  • #24 SMUat#2 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 19.4 (93%)

  • #15 Kentuckyat#13 Missouri

    Missouri by 7.7 (72%)

  • #22 LSUat#14 Tennessee

    Tennessee by 0.4 (51%)

  • #1 GeorgiaatSouth Carolina

    Georgia by 7.7 (72%)

  • Virginia Techat#3 Miami

    Miami by 18.6 (92%)

  • #4 Ohio StateatNebraska

    Ohio State by 7.7 (72%)

  • #5 IndianaatWashington

    Indiana by 13.1 (84%)

  • Chattanoogaat#6 Alabama

    Alabama by 49.1 (99%)

The full slate

70 games, in kickoff order.

  • Ball StateatOhio

    Ohio by 14.2 (86%)

  • E MichiganatW Michigan

    W Michigan by 11.3 (81%)

  • Miami OHatKent State

    Miami OH by 4.5 (64%)

  • AkronatUMass

    UMass by 3.8 (62%)

  • C MichiganatBuffalo

    C Michigan by 0.1 (50%)

  • RiceatTemple

    Temple by 6.2 (68%)

  • Iowa StateatUCF

    UCF by 2.4 (57%)

  • ClemsonatDuke

    Duke by 3.9 (62%)

  • Bowling GreenatToledo

    Toledo by 14.1 (86%)

  • OregonatMichigan St

    Oregon by 10.1 (78%)

  • UTEPatAir Force

    Air Force by 14.7 (87%)

  • #1 GeorgiaatSouth Carolina

    Georgia by 7.7 (72%)

  • Virginia Techat#3 Miami

    Miami by 18.6 (92%)

  • #4 Ohio StateatNebraska

    Ohio State by 7.7 (72%)

  • #5 IndianaatWashington

    Indiana by 13.1 (84%)

  • Arkansasat#7 Texas

    Texas by 17.2 (91%)

  • #8 BYUatKansas

    BYU by 6.8 (70%)

  • #10 Texas TechatBaylor

    Texas Tech by 6.3 (69%)

  • #11 UtahatTCU

    Utah by 7.0 (71%)

  • #12 UCLAatMichigan

    Michigan by 0.2 (50%)

  • #15 Kentuckyat#13 Missouri

    Missouri by 7.7 (72%)

  • #22 LSUat#14 Tennessee

    Tennessee by 0.4 (51%)

  • #17 IowaatIllinois

    Iowa by 2.3 (57%)

  • #18 Oklahoma StatArizona St

    Arizona St by 1.7 (55%)

  • Marylandat#19 USC

    USC by 13.2 (85%)

  • #20 HoustonatWest Virginia

    Houston by 8.6 (75%)

  • #21 Wake ForestatGeorgia Tech

    Wake Forest by 6.3 (69%)

  • #25 NorthwesternatMinnesota

    Northwestern by 4.0 (62%)

  • VanderbiltatFlorida

    Florida by 7.3 (71%)

  • Texas A&MatOklahoma

    Oklahoma by 3.0 (59%)

  • ArizonaatKansas St

    Arizona by 1.9 (56%)

  • ColoradoatCincinnati

    Cincinnati by 7.7 (72%)

  • NC StateatFlorida St

    Florida St by 6.6 (69%)

  • North CarolinaatVirginia

    Virginia by 5.7 (67%)

  • PittatLouisville

    Louisville by 1.0 (53%)

  • StanfordatCalifornia

    California by 8.0 (73%)

  • SyracuseatBoston College

    Syracuse by 2.4 (57%)

  • RutgersatPenn State

    Penn State by 13.9 (86%)

  • WisconsinatPurdue

    Wisconsin by 1.7 (55%)

  • CharlotteatTulsa

    Tulsa by 16.8 (90%)

  • South FloridaatFAU

    South Florida by 4.1 (62%)

  • North TexasatTulane

    North Texas by 3.2 (60%)

  • UTSAatUAB

    UTSA by 8.6 (75%)

  • Hawai'iatNevada

    Nevada by 2.5 (58%)

  • UL MonroeatApp State

    App State by 11.1 (80%)

  • Arkansas StatLouisiana Tech

    Louisiana Tech by 6.9 (70%)

  • CoastalatLouisiana

    Louisiana by 6.2 (68%)

  • GA SouthernatTroy

    Troy by 1.8 (55%)

  • Georgia StatMarshall

    Georgia St by 5.1 (65%)

  • South AlabamaatSouthern Miss

    South Alabama by 1.5 (55%)

  • Woffordat#9 Ole Miss

    Ole Miss by 40.5 (99%)

  • East CarolinaatArmy

    Army by 0.9 (53%)

  • MemphisatNavy

    Memphis by 2.0 (56%)

  • Tennessee Techat#16 Mississippi St

    Mississippi St by 37.8 (99%)

  • Western KYatLiberty

    Liberty by 10.5 (79%)

  • Chattanoogaat#6 Alabama

    Alabama by 49.1 (99%)

  • Missouri StatJax State

    Jax State by 9.8 (77%)

  • MTSUatSam Houston

    Sam Houston by 2.8 (59%)

  • DelawareatNew Mexico St

    New Mexico St by 2.1 (56%)

  • FIUatKennesaw St

    Kennesaw St by 2.4 (57%)

  • SamfordatAuburn

    Auburn by 35.3 (99%)

  • Old DominionatUConn

    UConn by 5.6 (67%)

  • N IllinoisatN Dakota St

    N Dakota St by 23.4 (96%)

  • Washington StatTexas St

    Texas St by 5.9 (68%)

  • UNLVatSan José St

    UNLV by 7.1 (71%)

  • #24 SMUat#2 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 19.4 (93%)

  • Colorado StatFresno St

    Fresno St by 11.5 (81%)

  • New MexicoatWyoming

    New Mexico by 13.6 (85%)

  • San Diego Stat#23 Boise St

    Boise St by 12.5 (83%)

  • Utah StateatOregon St

    Oregon St by 10.8 (80%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.