What the model says about week 7

Tennessee's game

Where the model disagrees with the market

The games where these ratings and the betting line are furthest apart. A model that agrees with the consensus is not telling you anything; these are the only games where it is. All of them settle on Saturday.

• Arkansas StatSouthern Miss

  20 pts of win prob

  Model gives Southern Miss 49% · market 30% (DraftKings)

• Virginiaat#24 SMU

  19 pts of win prob

  Model gives SMU 58% · market 77% (DraftKings)

• #18 Oklahoma Stat#20 Houston

  18 pts of win prob

  Model gives Houston 82% · market 64% (DraftKings)

• LouisvilleatSyracuse

  18 pts of win prob

  Model gives Syracuse 31% · market 13% (DraftKings)

• #16 Mississippi Stat#22 LSU

  17 pts of win prob

  Model gives LSU 68% · market 86% (DraftKings)

• GA SouthernatOld Dominion

  17 pts of win prob

  Model gives Old Dominion 57% · market 39% (DraftKings)

• Washington StatOregon St

  17 pts of win prob

  Model gives Oregon St 74% · market 91% (DraftKings)

• Penn StateatMichigan

  16 pts of win prob

  Model gives Michigan 53% · market 69% (DraftKings)

• #4 Ohio Stateat#5 Indiana

  16 pts of win prob

  Model gives Indiana 55% · market 39% (DraftKings)

• San José StatUTEP

  15 pts of win prob

  Model gives UTEP 43% · market 28% (DraftKings)

Compared as win probabilities, not by subtracting the line from the projection. The model's margins run systematically small — measurably so, by a factor between 1.04 and 1.23 depending on the season — so a difference in points would mostly be measuring that, and an earlier version of this list produced ten entries that were all the same artifact. Probabilities divide the scale difference out. This is analysis, not betting advice: the market is right more often than not and has real money behind it. There are no sportsbook links on this site.

Ranked teams this week

• #2 Notre Dameat#8 BYU

  Notre Dame by 7.3 (71%) · line Notre Dame by 10.5

• #4 Ohio Stateat#5 Indiana

  Indiana by 1.6 (55%) · line Ohio State by 3.5

• #6 Alabamaat#14 Tennessee

  Alabama by 7.2 (71%) · line Alabama by 8.5

• #13 Missouriat#9 Ole Miss

  Ole Miss by 1.9 (56%) · line Ole Miss by 6.0

• #16 Mississippi Stat#22 LSU

  LSU by 6.2 (68%) · line LSU by 14.0

• #18 Oklahoma Stat#20 Houston

  Houston by 11.7 (82%) · line Houston by 4.5

• Auburnat#1 Georgia

  Georgia by 13.7 (85%) · line Georgia by 20.5

• Florida Stat#3 Miami

  Miami by 16.0 (89%) · line Miami by 21.5

The full slate

62 games, in kickoff order.

• DelawareatMTSU

  Delaware by 0.2 (51%)

• FIUatJax State

  Jax State by 3.3 (60%)

• Kennesaw StatMissouri St

  Kennesaw St by 3.9 (62%) · line Kennesaw St by 3.0

• Western KYatSam Houston

  Western KY by 1.2 (54%) · line Western KY by 1.5

• East CarolinaatUAB

  East Carolina by 7.9 (73%) · line East Carolina by 4.5

• GA SouthernatOld Dominion

  Old Dominion by 2.1 (57%) · line GA Southern by 3.5

• Colorado StatTexas St

  Texas St by 8.9 (75%) · line Texas St by 14.0

• MemphisatTulane

  Memphis by 1.9 (56%) · line Memphis by 7.0

• WashingtonatPurdue

  Purdue by 1.8 (55%) · line Purdue by 3.5

• App StateatCoastal

  Coastal by 2.3 (57%) · line App State by 1.5

• #4 Ohio Stateat#5 Indiana

  Indiana by 1.6 (55%) · line Ohio State by 3.5

• Floridaat#7 Texas

  Texas by 9.9 (78%) · line Texas by 10.5

• #16 Mississippi Stat#22 LSU

  LSU by 6.2 (68%) · line LSU by 14.0

• Virginiaat#24 SMU

  SMU by 2.5 (58%) · line SMU by 9.5

• #25 NorthwesternatMichigan St

  Northwestern by 3.9 (62%) · line Northwestern by 7.5

• CincinnatiatWest Virginia

  West Virginia by 0.0 (50%) · line West Virginia by 1.5

• KansasatKansas St

  Kansas St by 3.7 (61%) · line Kansas St by 4.5

• Charleston SoatClemson

  Clemson by 33.9 (99%)

• PittatBoston College

  Pitt by 12.9 (84%) · line Pitt by 6.5

• FAUatArmy

  Army by 5.1 (65%) · line Army by 2.5

• Ball StateatBowling Green

  Bowling Green by 5.4 (66%) · line Bowling Green by 6.5

• Georgia StatJames Madison

  James Madison by 13.5 (85%) · line James Madison by 12.5

• RutgersatMaryland

  Maryland by 5.4 (66%) · line Maryland by 4.5

• The CitadelatTexas A&M

  Texas A&M by 38.6 (99%)

• CharlotteatTemple

  Temple by 16.1 (89%) · line Temple by 21.5

• UMassatBuffalo

  Buffalo by 3.7 (61%) · line Buffalo by 6.5

• W MichiganatC Michigan

  W Michigan by 5.4 (66%) · line W Michigan by 6.5

• Auburnat#1 Georgia

  Georgia by 13.7 (85%) · line Georgia by 20.5

• #6 Alabamaat#14 Tennessee

  Alabama by 7.2 (71%) · line Alabama by 8.5

• #13 Missouriat#9 Ole Miss

  Ole Miss by 1.9 (56%) · line Ole Miss by 6.0

• Arizona Stat#10 Texas Tech

  Texas Tech by 16.6 (90%) · line Texas Tech by 14.5

• Georgia TechatVirginia Tech

  Virginia Tech by 4.8 (64%) · line Virginia Tech by 10.0

• North CarolinaatDuke

  Duke by 6.7 (70%) · line Duke by 3.0

• Penn StateatMichigan

  Michigan by 1.1 (53%) · line Michigan by 6.5

• N IllinoisatWyoming

  Wyoming by 7.3 (71%) · line Wyoming by 7.5

• UNLVatAir Force

  Air Force by 0.3 (51%) · line UNLV by 1.5

• ToledoatE Michigan

  Toledo by 6.5 (69%) · line Toledo by 6.5

• AkronatMiami OH

  Miami OH by 10.5 (79%) · line Miami OH by 9.5

• TulsaatRice

  Tulsa by 2.0 (56%) · line Tulsa by 4.5

• TroyatLouisiana

  Louisiana by 2.9 (59%) · line Louisiana by 4.5

• Washington StatOregon St

  Oregon St by 8.5 (74%) · line Oregon St by 17.5

• Florida Stat#3 Miami

  Miami by 16.0 (89%) · line Miami by 21.5

• ArkansasatVanderbilt

  Vanderbilt by 5.0 (65%) · line Vanderbilt by 6.0

• TCUatBaylor

  Baylor by 2.9 (59%) · line Baylor by 6.0

• Kent StateatSouth Florida

  South Florida by 17.8 (91%) · line South Florida by 20.5

• NevadaatN Dakota St

  N Dakota St by 16.8 (90%) · line N Dakota St by 14.5

• Arkansas StatSouthern Miss

  Arkansas St by 0.2 (51%) · line Arkansas St by 7.0

• #2 Notre Dameat#8 BYU

  Notre Dame by 7.3 (71%) · line Notre Dame by 10.5

• Wisconsinat#12 UCLA

  UCLA by 5.2 (65%) · line UCLA by 2.5

• #15 KentuckyatOklahoma

  Oklahoma by 5.7 (67%) · line Oklahoma by 7.0

• #18 Oklahoma Stat#20 Houston

  Houston by 11.7 (82%) · line Houston by 4.5

• ElonatStanford

  Stanford by 23.5 (96%)

• LouisvilleatSyracuse

  Louisville by 6.5 (69%) · line Louisville by 14.5

• NavyatUTSA

  UTSA by 4.6 (64%) · line UTSA by 6.5

• Louisiana TechatUL Monroe

  Louisiana Tech by 11.7 (82%) · line Louisiana Tech by 15.5

• San José StatUTEP

  San José St by 2.3 (57%) · line San José St by 7.5

• OhioatSacramento St

  Ohio by 11.2 (80%) · line Ohio by 15.5

• #11 UtahatColorado

  Utah by 15.8 (89%) · line Utah by 15.5

• #21 Wake ForestatCalifornia

  Wake Forest by 7.0 (70%) · line Wake Forest by 9.5

• Fresno StatSan Diego St

  Fresno St by 3.2 (60%) · line Fresno St by 7.5

• New MexicoatHawai'i

  New Mexico by 11.8 (82%) · line New Mexico by 14.5

• NebraskaatOregon

  Oregon by 6.8 (70%) · line Oregon by 7.5