What the model says about week 1

Tennessee's game

Where the model disagrees with the market

Not yet — and deliberately. The ratings behind this page are still built on 2025 results, so the model is reasoning about teams that no longer exist: it cannot see a transfer, a draft pick or a new coordinator, and the betting market has priced all three. Any gap between them right now would be the model's blind spot, not its opinion, and publishing it as insight would be dishonest. This turns on once the ratings are built from games played this season.

Ranked teams this week

• #24 Louisvillevs#9 Ole Miss

  Ole Miss by 6.0 (71%) · line Ole Miss by 6.5

• Ball Stateat#1 Ohio State

  Ohio State by 39.1 (99%) · line Ohio State by 50.5

• Boise Stat#2 Oregon

  Oregon by 17.7 (95%) · line Oregon by 24.5

• Tennessee Stat#3 Georgia

  Georgia by 44.3 (99%) · line Georgia by 47.5

• Wisconsinvs#4 Notre Dame

  Notre Dame by 19.6 (96%) · line Notre Dame by 20.5

• Texas Stat#5 Texas

  Texas by 13.4 (89%) · line Texas by 30.5

• North Texasat#6 Indiana

  Indiana by 17.5 (94%) · line Indiana by 40.5

• #7 MiamiatStanford

  Miami by 19.1 (96%) · line Miami by 24.5

The full slate

99 games, in kickoff order.

• North CarolinavsTCU

  TCU by 11.6 (85%) · line TCU by 7.5

• San José Stat#14 USC

  USC by 27.6 (99%) · line USC by 38.5

• NC StateatVirginia

  Virginia by 5.1 (68%) · line Virginia by 5.5

• Jax StateatN Dakota St

  Jax State by 20.1 (97%) · line N Dakota St by 7.0

• Sacramento StatE Michigan

  E Michigan by 18.7 (96%) · line E Michigan by 10.0

• Hawai'iatStanford

  Stanford by 0.6 (52%) · line Stanford by 4.0

• New Mexico StatFlorida St

  Florida St by 20.4 (97%) · line Florida St by 30.5

• MemphisatUNLV

  Memphis by 1.1 (54%) · line UNLV by 4.5

• UMassatRutgers

  Rutgers by 28.9 (99%) · line Rutgers by 29.5

• BethuneatUCF

  UCF by 28.8 (99%) · line UCF by 42.5

• AkronatWake Forest

  Wake Forest by 17.7 (95%) · line Wake Forest by 23.5

• MerrimackatDelaware

  Delaware by 21.8 (98%) · line Delaware by 28.5

• West GeorgiaatKennesaw St

  Kennesaw St by 27.9 (99%) · line Kennesaw St by 22.5

• UAlbanyatBuffalo

  Buffalo by 21.1 (97%) · line Buffalo by 24.5

• AR-Pine Bluffat#25 Missouri

  Missouri by 38.4 (99%) · line Missouri by 54.5

• ColoradoatGeorgia Tech

  Georgia Tech by 11.4 (85%) · line Georgia Tech by 6.5

• E IllinoisatMinnesota

  Minnesota by 30.8 (99%) · line Minnesota by 43.5

• Idahoat#21 Utah

  Utah by 46.5 (99%) · line Utah by 33.5

• UABatIllinois

  Illinois by 22.8 (98%) · line Illinois by 28.5

• San José StatE Michigan

  E Michigan by 2.6 (59%) · line E Michigan by 4.5

• Indiana StatPurdue

  Purdue by 26.6 (99%) · line Purdue by 35.5

• NC A&TatGeorgia St

  Georgia St by 15.6 (92%) · line Georgia St by 28.5

• UTEPat#10 Oklahoma

  Oklahoma by 26.0 (99%) · line Oklahoma by 41.5

• Long IslandatKansas

  Kansas by 32.5 (99%) · line Kansas by 38.5

• ToledoatMichigan St

  Toledo by 4.6 (66%) · line Michigan St by 10.0

• #7 MiamiatStanford

  Miami by 19.1 (96%) · line Miami by 24.5

• Fresno Stat#14 USC

  USC by 16.6 (93%) · line USC by 22.5

• North Texasat#6 Indiana

  Indiana by 17.5 (94%) · line Indiana by 40.5

• East Carolinaat#13 Alabama

  Alabama by 8.6 (78%) · line Alabama by 28.5

• Oregon Stat#23 Houston

  Houston by 16.6 (93%) · line Houston by 20.5

• CoastalatWest Virginia

  West Virginia by 9.0 (79%) · line West Virginia by 21.5

• New HampshireatSyracuse

  Syracuse by 23.1 (98%) · line Syracuse by 32.5

• OhioatNebraska

  Nebraska by 6.4 (72%) · line Nebraska by 24.5

• LafayetteatUConn

  UConn by 28.6 (99%) · line UConn by 19.5

• BryantatArmy

  Army by 28.8 (99%) · line Army by 36.5

• Tarleton StatBowling Green

  Bowling Green by 20.0 (97%) · line Bowling Green by 2.5

• LibertyatJames Madison

  James Madison by 19.1 (96%) · line James Madison by 6.5

• Ball Stateat#1 Ohio State

  Ohio State by 39.1 (99%) · line Ohio State by 50.5

• Miami OHatPitt

  Pitt by 14.0 (90%) · line Pitt by 16.5

• Kent StateatSouth Carolina

  South Carolina by 17.9 (95%) · line South Carolina by 36.5

• Youngstown StatKentucky

  Kentucky by 31.3 (99%) · line Kentucky by 23.5

• SE MissouriatIowa State

  Iowa State by 35.9 (99%) · line Iowa State by 29.5

• DuquesneatAir Force

  Air Force by 25.2 (99%) · line Air Force by 30.5

• Rhode IslandatTemple

  Temple by 25.6 (99%) · line Temple by 10.0

• Tennessee Stat#3 Georgia

  Georgia by 44.3 (99%) · line Georgia by 47.5

• Boise Stat#2 Oregon

  Oregon by 17.7 (95%) · line Oregon by 24.5

• Texas Stat#5 Texas

  Texas by 13.4 (89%) · line Texas by 30.5

• Marshallat#18 Penn State

  Penn State by 17.1 (94%) · line Penn State by 24.5

• Furmanat#20 Tennessee

  Tennessee by 38.3 (99%) · line Tennessee by 46.5

• BaylorvsAuburn

  Auburn by 5.6 (70%) · line Auburn by 7.0

• Boston CollegeatCincinnati

  Cincinnati by 10.2 (82%) · line Cincinnati by 7.5

• TulaneatDuke

  Duke by 2.9 (60%) · line Duke by 9.5

• The CitadelatCharlotte

  Charlotte by 12.3 (87%) · line Charlotte by 15.5

• TowsonatNavy

  Navy by 33.6 (99%) · line Navy by 30.5

• UT Rio GrandeatUTSA

  UTSA by 32.4 (99%) · line UTSA by 28.5

• FordhamatN Dakota St

  N Dakota St by 2.5 (59%) · line N Dakota St by 39.5

• MaineatApp State

  App State by 20.1 (97%) · line App State by 18.5

• Oklahoma StatTulsa

  Tulsa by 4.2 (65%) · line Oklahoma St by 14.0

• N Illinoisat#22 Iowa

  Iowa by 27.5 (99%) · line Iowa by 31.5

• North AlabamaatArkansas

  Arkansas by 33.2 (99%) · line Arkansas by 40.5

• Alcorn StatSouthern Miss

  Southern Miss by 24.9 (99%) · line Southern Miss by 21.0

• WyomingatColorado St

  Wyoming by 0.4 (52%) · line Colorado St by 3.5

• Norfolk StatOld Dominion

  Old Dominion by 36.2 (99%) · line Old Dominion by 41.5

• Missouri Stat#8 Texas A&M

  Texas A&M by 22.3 (98%) · line Texas A&M by 40.5

• Abilene Chrstnat#12 Texas Tech

  Texas Tech by 49.7 (99%) · line Texas Tech by 42.5

• Austin PeayatVanderbilt

  Vanderbilt by 43.1 (99%) · line Vanderbilt by 30.5

• NichollsatKansas St

  Kansas St by 33.9 (99%) · line Kansas St by 40.5

• Idaho StatUtah State

  Utah State by 29.0 (99%) · line Utah State by 12.5

• Arkansas StatMemphis

  Memphis by 12.6 (87%) · line Memphis by 10.0

• Hou ChristianatRice

  Rice by 18.2 (95%) · line Rice by 23.5

• FIUatSouth Florida

  South Florida by 19.7 (96%) · line South Florida by 13.5

• Murray StatMTSU

  MTSU by 16.0 (93%) · line MTSU by 20.5

• E KentuckyatJax State

  Jax State by 25.1 (99%) · line Jax State by 19.5

• Charleston SoatGA Southern

  GA Southern by 23.3 (98%) · line GA Southern by 25.5

• SE LouisianaatSouth Alabama

  South Alabama by 21.9 (98%) · line South Alabama by 12.5

• Sam HoustonatTroy

  Troy by 16.5 (93%) · line Troy by 16.5

• Clemsonat#11 LSU

  LSU by 3.0 (61%) · line LSU by 9.5

• W Michiganat#16 Michigan

  Michigan by 11.8 (86%) · line Michigan by 28.5

• UL MonroeatMississippi St

  Mississippi St by 17.6 (94%) · line Mississippi St by 28.5

• VMIatVirginia Tech

  Virginia Tech by 26.3 (99%) · line Virginia Tech by 50.5

• N'Western StatLouisiana Tech

  Louisiana Tech by 28.3 (99%) · line Louisiana Tech by 41.5

• FAUatFlorida

  Florida by 13.3 (89%) · line Florida by 26.5

• Utah Techat#14 BYU

  BYU by 42.8 (99%) · line BYU by 47.5

• HamptonatMaryland

  Maryland by 28.9 (99%) · line Maryland by 45.5

• S Dakota StatNorthwestern

  Northwestern by 33.7 (99%) · line Northwestern by 12.5

• LamaratLouisiana

  Louisiana by 22.3 (98%) · line Louisiana by 20.5

• MercyhurstatNew Mexico St

  New Mexico St by 18.7 (96%) · line New Mexico St by 24.5

• N ArizonaatArizona

  Arizona by 39.2 (99%) · line Arizona by 31.5

• Portland StatSan Diego St

  San Diego St by 33.9 (99%) · line San Diego St by 40.5

• Morgan StatArizona St

  Arizona St by 33.9 (99%) · line Arizona St by 41.5

• UNLVatHawai'i

  Hawai'i by 1.9 (57%) · line UNLV by 3.0

• C MichiganatNew Mexico

  New Mexico by 7.6 (76%) · line New Mexico by 11.5

• Miss Valley StatSacramento St

  Sacramento St by 2.5 (59%) · line Sacramento St by 35.5

• UCLAatCalifornia

  California by 2.6 (59%) · line UCLA by 1.5

• Western KYatNevada

  Western KY by 6.6 (73%) · line Western KY by 2.5

• Washington Stat#17 Washington

  Washington by 10.7 (83%) · line Washington by 22.5

• Wisconsinvs#4 Notre Dame

  Notre Dame by 19.6 (96%) · line Notre Dame by 20.5

• #24 Louisvillevs#9 Ole Miss

  Ole Miss by 6.0 (71%) · line Ole Miss by 6.5

• #19 SMUatFlorida St

  SMU by 0.6 (52%) · line SMU by 2.5