2026 · Away
at Georgia Tech
W 45-24
How it moved
Tennessee's chance of winning after every one of 186 plays.
100%
Best it got
Q4 0:14
67%
Worst it got
Q1 5:39
0
Times it flipped
never that close
The plays that decided it
Ranked by how far each moved Tennessee's chance of winning, biggest first. The number in orange is the swing, in points of win probability.
Q2 11:24
+16 → 85%
(11:32) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass intercepted by #10 D.Lane at GT 41 #10 D.Lane return 41 yards to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:24 #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
Q1 5:49
−10 → 69%
Elgin Sessions 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Aidan Birr Kick)
Q1 4:57
+8 → 74%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 F.Brandon pass complete deep left to #3 R.Jackson caught at GT 38, for 45 yards to the GT 32, out of bounds at GT 32, 1ST DOWN
Q2 6:02
−8 → 87%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 F.Brandon pass incomplete short middle to #0 E.Davis thrown to UT 49
Q2 6:17
+7 → 95%
(06:17) #47 A.Bacchetta punt 35 yards to the UT 45 blocked by #2 X.Gilliam
Where this comes from
Win probability is ESPN's, published per play. The swing is simply the difference between one play's figure and the play before it, so a total can be checked against their own numbers. Every description is theirs; nothing on this page is written about the game.
Only plays that moved the result by six points or more are listed — roughly the value of a single first down on a normal drive. Below that, two hundred plays would bury the handful that mattered.
Figures are from Tennessee's side throughout. ESPN reports the home team's chance, so everything is inverted on the road.