2026 · Home
vs Furman
W 56-9
How it moved
Tennessee's chance of winning after every one of 188 plays.
100%
Best it got
Q4 0:00
67%
Worst it got
Q1 11:08
0
Times it flipped
never that close
The plays that decided it
Ranked by how far each moved Tennessee's chance of winning, biggest first. The number in orange is the swing, in points of win probability.
Q1 10:42
+33 → 100%
(10:45) Shotgun #11 F.Brandon pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at FUR02, for 17 yards to the FUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:42, 1ST DOWN #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
Q1 11:08
−33 → 67%
Timeout Tennessee, clock 11:08
Where this comes from
Win probability is ESPN's, published per play. The swing is simply the difference between one play's figure and the play before it, so a total can be checked against their own numbers. Every description is theirs; nothing on this page is written about the game.
Only plays that moved the result by six points or more are listed — roughly the value of a single first down on a normal drive. Below that, two hundred plays would bury the handful that mattered.
Figures are from Tennessee's side throughout. ESPN reports the home team's chance, so everything is inverted on the road.