2025 · Away
at Florida
W 31-11
How it moved
Tennessee's chance of winning after every one of 154 plays.
100%
Best it got
Q4 0:19
67%
Worst it got
Q1 14:25
0
Times it flipped
never that close
The plays that decided it
Nothing did — and that is the finding. No single play moved the result by more than six points of win probability, because the result was never seriously in question. The largest swing all game was 5 points.
Where this comes from
Win probability is ESPN's, published per play. The swing is simply the difference between one play's figure and the play before it, so a total can be checked against their own numbers. Every description is theirs; nothing on this page is written about the game.
Only plays that moved the result by six points or more are listed — roughly the value of a single first down on a normal drive. Below that, two hundred plays would bury the handful that mattered.
Figures are from Tennessee's side throughout. ESPN reports the home team's chance, so everything is inverted on the road.