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vs Oklahoma
L 27-33
How it moved
Tennessee's chance of winning after every one of 195 plays.
83%
Best it got
Q1 8:20
0%
Worst it got
Q4 0:46
3
Times it flipped
a wild one
The plays that decided it
Ranked by how far each moved Tennessee's chance of winning, biggest first. The number in orange is the swing, in points of win probability.
Q3 11:52
+30 → 60%
Braylon Staley 54 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)
Q4 1:55
−24 → 0%
(01:56) #90 M.Gilbert onside kickoff 9 yards to the TENN44, End Of Play
Q3 15:00
−20 → 22%
(15:00) #94 J.Turbyville kickoff 65 yards to the OKLA00, Touchback
Q1 8:01
−19 → 63%
(08:13) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 5 yards to the OKLA29 (#38 O.Heinecke), fumble by #6 J.Aguilar recovered by OKLA #32 R.Thomas at OKLA29 #32 R.Thomas return 71 yards to the TENN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:01 #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson)
Q4 1:56
+15 → 24%
Mike Matthews 15 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)
Q3 6:47
+14 → 65%
(06:55) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 14 yards gain to the TENN10 fumbled by #24 X.Robinson at TENN15 forced by #15 E.Farooq recovered by TENN #15 E.Farooq at TENN10, End Of Play PENALTY OKLA Holding declined
Q4 11:05
−11 → 17%
Tate Sandell 55 Yd Field Goal
Q4 10:57
−9 → 16%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TENN27 (#5 K.Daniels)
Where this comes from
Win probability is ESPN's, published per play. The swing is simply the difference between one play's figure and the play before it, so a total can be checked against their own numbers. Every description is theirs; nothing on this page is written about the game.
Only plays that moved the result by six points or more are listed — roughly the value of a single first down on a normal drive. Below that, two hundred plays would bury the handful that mattered.
Figures are from Tennessee's side throughout. ESPN reports the home team's chance, so everything is inverted on the road.