2025 · Away
at Alabama
L 20-37
How it moved
Tennessee's chance of winning after every one of 183 plays.
37%
Best it got
Q2 8:11
0%
Worst it got
Q4 0:00
0
Times it flipped
a real game
The plays that decided it
Ranked by how far each moved Tennessee's chance of winning, biggest first. The number in orange is the swing, in points of win probability.
Q2 0:00
−16 → 6%
Zabien Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)
Q2 11:05
+9 → 30%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 30 yds to the ALA 2 for a 1ST down
Where this comes from
Win probability is ESPN's, published per play. The swing is simply the difference between one play's figure and the play before it, so a total can be checked against their own numbers. Every description is theirs; nothing on this page is written about the game.
Only plays that moved the result by six points or more are listed — roughly the value of a single first down on a normal drive. Below that, two hundred plays would bury the handful that mattered.
Figures are from Tennessee's side throughout. ESPN reports the home team's chance, so everything is inverted on the road.