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vs Arkansas
W 34-31
How it moved
Tennessee's chance of winning after every one of 193 plays.
100%
Best it got
Q4 0:00
50%
Worst it got
Q2 4:36
2
Times it flipped
a real game
The plays that decided it
Ranked by how far each moved Tennessee's chance of winning, biggest first. The number in orange is the swing, in points of win probability.
Q3 9:12
+12 → 74%
Braylen Russell run for 15 yds to the TENN 14 Braylen Russell fumbled, recovered by ARK Arion Carter
Q3 7:39
−9 → 64%
Taylen Green run for 18 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Holding (Joshua Josephs) to the TENN 32 for a 1ST down
Q1 6:42
+9 → 83%
Taylen Green sacked by Jordan Ross for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 49 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Jordan Ross , return for 0 yards
Q2 7:15
−9 → 60%
Taylen Green run for 22 yds to the TENN 15 for a 1ST down
Q3 6:37
+9 → 70%
Mike Washington Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 25
Q4 2:55
−9 → 87%
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 12 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
Q2 4:21
+8 → 57%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 42 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST down
Q2 5:15
−8 → 54%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 10 yds to the TENN 1 for a 1ST down
Where this comes from
Win probability is ESPN's, published per play. The swing is simply the difference between one play's figure and the play before it, so a total can be checked against their own numbers. Every description is theirs; nothing on this page is written about the game.
Only plays that moved the result by six points or more are listed — roughly the value of a single first down on a normal drive. Below that, two hundred plays would bury the handful that mattered.
Figures are from Tennessee's side throughout. ESPN reports the home team's chance, so everything is inverted on the road.