2025 · Away
at Mississippi St
W 41-34
How it moved
Tennessee's chance of winning after every one of 194 plays.
100%
Best it got
Q4 0:00
11%
Worst it got
Q4 5:34
10
Times it flipped
a wild one
The plays that decided it
Ranked by how far each moved Tennessee's chance of winning, biggest first. The number in orange is the swing, in points of win probability.
Q4 0:00
−50 → 50%
End of 4th Quarter
Q4 0:00
+44 → 100%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (William Wright) declined
Q4 13:29
+38 → 66%
Joshua Josephs 41 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)
Q4 9:43
−24 → 32%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Zakari Tillman return for 26 yds to the TENN 17
Q4 12:48
−16 → 54%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 49 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST down
Q4 0:24
+14 → 69%
Joey Aguilar run for 9 yds to the MSST 49
Q1 4:19
+13 → 75%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Colton Hood return for 23 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Q4 14:09
−12 → 28%
Sam West run for 15 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST down
Where this comes from
Win probability is ESPN's, published per play. The swing is simply the difference between one play's figure and the play before it, so a total can be checked against their own numbers. Every description is theirs; nothing on this page is written about the game.
Only plays that moved the result by six points or more are listed — roughly the value of a single first down on a normal drive. Below that, two hundred plays would bury the handful that mattered.
Figures are from Tennessee's side throughout. ESPN reports the home team's chance, so everything is inverted on the road.