2025 · Home
vs Georgia
L 41-44
How it moved
Tennessee's chance of winning after every one of 206 plays.
94%
Best it got
Q4 3:01
0%
Worst it got
OT 0:00
7
Times it flipped
a wild one
The plays that decided it
Ranked by how far each moved Tennessee's chance of winning, biggest first. The number in orange is the swing, in points of win probability.
Q4 2:32
−37 → 57%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 28 yds for a TD (Gunner Stockton pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion)
OT 0:00
−35 → 8%
Nate Frazier run for 21 yds to the TENN 4 for a 1ST down
Q4 0:03
−30 → 50%
Max Gilbert 43 yd FG MISSED
Q3 0:07
+23 → 53%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 56 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
OT 0:00
−21 → 0%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD
Q4 1:51
+18 → 64%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 12 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST down
Q4 11:01
+16 → 72%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 32 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Q1 9:29
+16 → 68%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 72 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Where this comes from
Win probability is ESPN's, published per play. The swing is simply the difference between one play's figure and the play before it, so a total can be checked against their own numbers. Every description is theirs; nothing on this page is written about the game.
Only plays that moved the result by six points or more are listed — roughly the value of a single first down on a normal drive. Below that, two hundred plays would bury the handful that mattered.
Figures are from Tennessee's side throughout. ESPN reports the home team's chance, so everything is inverted on the road.