Accountability
Every prediction, graded
Every 2025 game the model would have called, using only games played before it. Nothing here is stored — the whole season is recomputed on every request, so it cannot be edited after the fact and a bad week cannot quietly go missing.
709
Games graded
70.9%
Winner called
12.7 pts
Average miss
Tennessee's games
6 of 11 called correctly. Newest first.
Wk 16 Tennessee Volunteers at Illinois Fighting Illini
missedSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 0.5 (52%) · actual Illinois Fighting Illini by 2
Wk 14 Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers
missedSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 0.1 (50%) · actual Vanderbilt Commodores by 21
Wk 13 Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators
called itSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 4.2 (64%) · actual Tennessee Volunteers by 20
Wk 12 New Mexico State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers
called itSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 21.2 (96%) · actual Tennessee Volunteers by 33
Wk 10 Oklahoma Sooners at Tennessee Volunteers
missedSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 1.4 (55%) · actual Oklahoma Sooners by 6
Wk 9 Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats
called itSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 4.7 (65%) · actual Tennessee Volunteers by 22
Wk 8 Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide
called itSaid Alabama Crimson Tide by 8.1 (75%) · actual Alabama Crimson Tide by 17
Wk 7 Arkansas Razorbacks at Tennessee Volunteers
called itSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 5.8 (68%) · actual Tennessee Volunteers by 3
Wk 5 Tennessee Volunteers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
missedSaid Mississippi State Bulldogs by 1.6 (55%) · actual Tennessee Volunteers by 7
Wk 4 UAB Blazers at Tennessee Volunteers
called itSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 16.9 (92%) · actual Tennessee Volunteers by 32
Wk 3 Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers
missedSaid Tennessee Volunteers by 7.2 (72%) · actual Georgia Bulldogs by 3
Week by week
- Wk 336/47 · 77% · 15.7 pts
- Wk 435/50 · 70% · 14.5 pts
- Wk 538/51 · 75% · 11.3 pts
- Wk 635/50 · 70% · 12.2 pts
- Wk 738/56 · 68% · 14.3 pts
- Wk 845/59 · 76% · 12.2 pts
- Wk 939/53 · 74% · 11.3 pts
- Wk 1032/52 · 62% · 13.2 pts
- Wk 1133/51 · 65% · 10.9 pts
- Wk 1247/58 · 81% · 12.3 pts
- Wk 1347/60 · 78% · 12.9 pts
- Wk 1448/67 · 72% · 13.0 pts
- Wk 155/9 · 56% · 10.8 pts
- Wk 1625/46 · 54% · 12.5 pts
Where it was most wrong
The ten games whose final margin was furthest from the prediction.
Wk 3 Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan Wolverines
called itSaid Michigan Wolverines by 7.3 (73%) · actual Michigan Wolverines by 60
Wk 4 Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers
called itSaid Indiana Hoosiers by 2.0 (57%) · actual Indiana Hoosiers by 53
Wk 12 San José State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack
missedSaid San José State Spartans by 5.8 (68%) · actual Nevada Wolf Pack by 45
Wk 4 California Golden Bears at San Diego State Aztecs
missedSaid California Golden Bears by 12.0 (84%) · actual San Diego State Aztecs by 34
Wk 3 Oklahoma Sooners at Temple Owls
missedSaid Temple Owls by 4.9 (66%) · actual Oklahoma Sooners by 39
Wk 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arkansas Razorbacks
missedSaid Arkansas Razorbacks by 0.9 (53%) · actual Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 43
Wk 3 South Florida Bulls at Miami Hurricanes
missedSaid South Florida Bulls by 5.5 (68%) · actual Miami Hurricanes by 37
Wk 5 Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange
missedSaid Syracuse Orange by 6.9 (71%) · actual Duke Blue Devils by 35
Wk 7 Rice Owls at UTSA Roadrunners
called itSaid UTSA Roadrunners by 6.4 (70%) · actual UTSA Roadrunners by 48
Wk 3 Washington State Cougars at North Texas Mean Green
called itSaid North Texas Mean Green by 9.7 (79%) · actual North Texas Mean Green by 49
Road teams it took, and got right
Picking against home field is the call the model actually had to make.
Wk 14 Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers
called itSaid Indiana Hoosiers by 22.0 (96%) · actual Indiana Hoosiers by 53
Wk 14 Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers
called itSaid Texas Tech Red Raiders by 18.6 (94%) · actual Texas Tech Red Raiders by 49
Wk 14 James Madison Dukes at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
called itSaid James Madison Dukes by 14.8 (89%) · actual James Madison Dukes by 49
Wk 8 Oregon Ducks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
called itSaid Oregon Ducks by 7.1 (72%) · actual Oregon Ducks by 46
Wk 10 Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins
called itSaid Indiana Hoosiers by 13.9 (87%) · actual Indiana Hoosiers by 45
Wk 12 Northern Illinois Huskies at Massachusetts Minutemen
called itSaid Northern Illinois Huskies by 6.9 (72%) · actual Northern Illinois Huskies by 42
Wk 14 Florida International Panthers at Sam Houston Bearkats
called itSaid Florida International Panthers by 8.0 (75%) · actual Florida International Panthers by 40
Wk 14 East Carolina Pirates at Florida Atlantic Owls
called itSaid East Carolina Pirates by 7.3 (73%) · actual East Carolina Pirates by 39
Wk 3 East Carolina Pirates at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
called itSaid East Carolina Pirates by 11.9 (84%) · actual East Carolina Pirates by 38
Wk 7 Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers
called itSaid Iowa Hawkeyes by 3.2 (60%) · actual Iowa Hawkeyes by 37
How it is graded
For every week, the ratings are recomputed from the games played before it, and the prediction that follows is exactly the one the model would have made at the time. No game contributes to its own prediction.
Early weeks are not graded at all — until roughly a hundred and fifty games have been played, the ratings are too thin to be worth marking. Games involving a team outside the ratings pool are excluded, because there was no rating to predict with. Ties grade nobody.
Probabilities use a spread fitted on these same out-of-sample predictions, which is the same conversion the rest of the site uses. See the accuracy page for whether that confidence is honest.